由于美国在建构本土关键矿产供应链前难以再升级关税或科技打击，北京获得更大操作空间，对台湾与贸易摩擦议题施压。中国在美国宣布对拥有2300万人口的台湾提供最大规模之一军售后，展开新一轮环台军演，并加大对日本的经济施压。欧洲亦承受压力，领袖警告中国在国家支持下的制造业主导模式破坏经济平衡。2026年初德国、英国、爱尔兰领袖访中，以及特朗普预计4月访华，将考验习近平能否把优势转为谈判筹码。
但国内数据转弱：2025年增长大致维持在约5%目标附近且未祭出「大水漫灌」，动能却在消退。投资可能出现自1998年以来首次年度萎缩；零售增速降至疫情外最弱；11月新屋价格再度下跌，房地产危机仍无尽头。政治层面，习近平以反腐调查创下高层官员「被查」新高并清洗多名将领，引发军队战备疑虑，而美方官员称其要求解放军在2027年前具备攻台能力。
By late 2025, Xi Jinping ends a rocky year with external wins: China used rare-earth leverage in Trump’s renewed trade war, redirected shipments away from the US, and pushed its trade surplus past $1 trillion for the first time. Despite tighter US chip curbs, AI firms kept advancing and chipmakers rushed to IPOs under a self-reliance drive. Diplomatically, Xi staged a Beijing parade with about two dozen foreign leaders and met Trump in South Korea for a “G2” style summit.
The pause in Washington’s tariff and technology escalation—until the US builds its own critical-minerals capacity—gives Beijing room to press on Taiwan and trade frictions. China launched fresh drills around Taiwan after one of the largest US arms packages for the island’s 23 million people, and it intensified economic pressure on Japan. Europe also faces strain as leaders warn China’s manufacturing-heavy model, backed by state support, threatens balance. Visits from Germany, the UK and Ireland in early 2026, and Trump’s planned April trip, will test Xi’s leverage.
At home, the numbers look softer: growth stayed near a 5% target without a stimulus “bazooka,” but momentum is fading. Investment is heading for its first annual contraction since 1998; retail sales slowed to their weakest pace outside the pandemic; and new home prices fell again in November amid an unresolved property crisis. Politically, Xi investigated a record count of senior officials and purged many generals, raising readiness questions as US officials cite a 2027 Taiwan-invasion capability goal.
