过去十多年，严格的资本规则与压力测试让银行更偏向低资本占用的安全放贷，买方则募资数百亿美元以更快放款、收取更高利率并扩张私募信贷。黑石的信用与保险资产管理规模在 9 月超过 4,320 亿美元，较 2021 年底增 67%；阿波罗的信用 AUM 同期增 83% 至 7,230 亿美元。
随著监管在第二个川普政府任内转松（包括巴塞尔 III Endgame 等更严资本提案受挫、压力测试与杠杆限制获缓解，甚至 CFPB 被「掏空」），大银行近几季以金融危机后最快速度扩大放贷：摩根大通主导 80 亿美元收购融资、承诺 175 亿美元与 200 亿美元杠杆收购融资；富国另提供 295 亿美元过桥额度。同时，关税与通膨疑虑使降息变慢、抬高融资成本并拖累募资与退出；私募信贷估值与风险受更严关注，叠加 Tricolor Holdings 与 First Brands 事件、Dimon 警告更多「蟑螂」出现。银行面则见摩根大通逼近历史最高年利、富国 7 年资产上限解除、花旗重回高于净值交易，并以「18 个月」禁令强硬反制挖角。
By late 2025, the rivalry between banks and private-credit/alt managers flips: the six US bank titans (JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley) average up more than 45% this year, while the four big public alts (Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, Carlyle) are down in aggregate, with Carlyle the lone notable gainer—traditional lenders’ strongest relative outperformance in a generation.
Tight post-crisis capital rules and stress tests pushed banks toward safer, lower-capital loans, while buy-side firms raised tens of billions to lend faster and charge higher rates, turning private credit into a major rival. Blackstone’s credit-and-insurance AUM topped $432 billion in September, up 67% since end-2021; Apollo’s credit AUM rose 83% over the same span to $723 billion.
As regulation eases under a second Trump administration—Basel III Endgame blunted, stress-test and leverage constraints relaxed, and even the CFPB gutted—big banks expand lending at the fastest pace since the crisis rebound. JPMorgan leads/backs deals of $8B, $17.5B, and $20B; Wells pledges a $29.5B bridge facility, narrowing the gap with private-credit rivals. But tariffs and inflation fears keep rates higher for longer, hurting exits and fundraising, while authorities scrutinize private-credit valuations amid blowups (Tricolor Holdings, First Brands) and warnings of more “credit cockroaches.” Banks also cite JPMorgan near record profits, Wells’ 7-year asset cap lifted, Citi trading above book, and a hardline 18-month anti-poaching policy.
