巴克莱外汇与新兴市场宏观策略主管Mitul Kotecha称，在重大会晤前中国通常让汇率保持基本稳定并略有走强。文章指出，人民币是中西贸易摩擦核心：欧美认为中国凭借偏弱汇率推高顺差。去年人民币兑欧元几乎下跌8%，与创历史纪录的欧盟出口并行，并引发对「第二次China shock」的担忧。高盛上周指出，外部顺差占全球GDP比例已达前所未有水准、出口竞争力深厚，长期看来都指向人民币应继续升值。
高盛同时估计人民币仍低估约20%。内部数据亦显示通缩压力有缓和迹象：4月消费者物价指数上升1.2%，接近近三年高位且高于市场预期；工业生产者物价指数上升2.8%。工厂出厂价在3月重回增长，为2022年以来首次，且受伊朗战争冲击全球供应链影响，油气开采行业4月环比上涨18.5%，燃料加工与化工制造价格亦上升。
The People’s Bank of China set Monday’s renminbi fixing at RMB 6.8467 per USD, the strongest since March 2023, while the onshore rate also touched RMB 6.795 per dollar, the first break below 6.8 since February 2023. The move, ahead of the Xi Jinping–Donald Trump meeting, suggests official tolerance for a stronger currency. Yet the central bank fixed at a weaker level than markets expected, indicating it is allowing appreciation only in a managed pace rather than a freely accelerating one.
Mitul Kotecha of Barclays said China usually keeps the currency relatively stable with slight appreciation before major meetings. The article says the renminbi remains at the center of West-China trade tensions, where Europe and the U.S. argue that a weak currency contributes to China’s large trade surplus. Last year the renminbi fell almost 8% against the euro, while exports to the EU surged, fuelling renewed fear of a “second China shock.” Goldman Sachs said China’s external surplus as a share of global GDP is at an unprecedented level and its export competitiveness is strong, both of which support further long-run renminbi appreciation.
Goldman also estimates the renminbi is undervalued by about 20%. Domestic data reinforced a weakening of deflationary pressure: China’s CPI rose 1.2% in April, near a three-year high and above expectations, while PPI rose 2.8%. Producer-gate prices returned to growth in March for the first time since 2022. Oil and gas extraction prices rose 18.5% month-on-month in April, with gains also in fuel processing and chemical manufacturing, showing lingering effects from the Iran war across global supply chains.