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RA Stanger 的资料显示,2026 年第一季富裕个人对常青(evergreen)私募股权的新投资缩减,反映估值与信贷品质的担忧正在整个私人资本市场扩散。尽管行业大幅行销,两大公司 KKR 与 Ares 在该类车辆的募资金额仍低于去年。整体美国常青私募股权或创投基金的新承诺较第四季下滑 2%,且较去年同期仅高 2%,远不及去年初曾有的 55% 同比增长。

零售募资原本集中在私募信贷,但资金流出和压力已向其他资产类别扩散。RA Stanger 表示,私募信贷净流入无论与第四季或去年同期相比都下降 30%。Blue Owl 首支零售基金被迫永久停止赎回,其他机构亦出现减值纪录;EQT 执行长 Gustav Segerberg 指出,信贷端的问题也波及其他资产类别的募资。RA Stanger 首席执行长 Kevin Gannon 说,若第一季趋势延续,全年私人资本募资将下滑,替代投资全年规模将为 180 十亿美元($180bn,约 1.8×10^11)而非 2025 年的 211 十亿美元($211bn,约 2.11×10^11)。

对软体产业受 AI 冲击的忧虑,促使投资人撤出大量重倚软体的私募信贷车辆,但尚未对具股权敞口的车辆形成同等压力。EQT 说其私募股权、基础设施与房地产车辆本季仍录得个人投资者净流入新高,但该公司亦表示若无私募信贷问题,本季会多约 10 亿欧元(€1bn)。RA Stanger 资料同时显示 Blackstone、Ares 与 KKR 的私募股权车辆流入放缓;Blackstone 回应称,先前在 2024 与 2025 年第一季已筹得但当季释放的 escrow 资金扭曲了比较,若排除该部分,其每季募资仍呈年增。基础设施与房地产常青车辆较抗跌,季度不动产常青基金净流入较去年同期增长超过 25%。KKR、Ares、Brookfield 在两类资产皆报称销售增长,Ares 亦称美国私募信贷之外的需求正在加速。

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RA Stanger’s data show that affluent investors reduced new commitments to evergreen private equity in Q1, indicating concerns over valuations and credit quality are spreading across private capital. Even with heavy industry marketing, KKR and Ares raised less in their evergreen private equity vehicles than a year earlier. Across U.S. evergreen private equity and venture capital, new commitments were 2% lower than Q4 and only 2% above the same quarter last year, far below the 55% year-on-year increase at the start of last year.

Retail fundraising had been concentrated in private credit, but outflows and strain spread beyond it. RA Stanger shows private-credit inflows were down 30% versus both Q4 and the prior-year quarter. Blue Owl had to permanently suspend redemptions in its inaugural retail fund, and other firms booked writedowns; EQT executive Gustav Segerberg said pressure on credit was also affecting flows into other asset classes. RA Stanger CEO Kevin Gannon said if the Q1 trend continued, private capital fundraising would decline in 2026, with alternatives expected at $180bn (1.8×10^11) versus $211bn (2.11×10^11) in 2025.

Fears that AI would hurt software companies triggered withdrawals from private-credit vehicles heavily exposed to software, while vehicles with equity exposure have not yet faced similar pressure. EQT reported record net inflows this quarter into funds for private equity, infrastructure, and real estate, but said it would have raised over €1bn more without the private-credit issue. Data also indicate inflow slowdowns at Blackstone, Ares, and KKR private-equity vehicles; Blackstone said releases from escrow raised in Q1 of 2024 and 2025 distorted the figures, and that, excluding escrow, its Q1 raise was higher year on year. Infrastructure and evergreen real-estate vehicles held up better, with evergreen property fund inflows up more than 25% year on year. KKR, Ares, and Brookfield reported sales growth in both classes, and Ares said demand is accelerating outside US private credit.
2026-05-11 (Monday) · a34033ddb77c92eaa0ebe6098872edd631139d54