美国宏观数据在年初带来“正向意外”：市场原本预期 12 月 CPI 会在去年联邦政府停摆影响消退后回升，但实际并未发生。总体与核心通胀都处在 2021 年后疫情通胀周期以来的低位区间；与关税最相关的核心商品通胀仍仅 1.4%，被解读为并未出现“大家担心的关税后价格大跳升”。
但报告未引发强烈的乐观反应，因为多项细分与替代口径显示“表面温和、内里偏强”。包括 trimmed mean、median、“sticky-price”、以及美联储“supercore”（剔除住房的服务通胀）在内的指标共同指向通胀在温和上行，且处于或高于美联储 3% 的上沿目标。Omair Sharif 认为核心通胀“可能仍更接近 3.0%”，并指出若将出现创纪录下跌与上涨的分项相互抵消，这些异常分项本身就把核心通胀拉低了 10 个基点。
若干单项的月度变动极端且难以解释：无线电话服务指数环比下跌 3.3%，为史上第二大跌幅，单独就把核心通胀压低 7.5 个基点；搬家与仓储环比下跌 14.35%。Samuel Tombs 进一步提示，美联储官方目标核心 PCE 可能比核心 CPI 上升更多，因为其包含“外食”，而该项环比上升 0.7%。政策层面存在相互抵消的力量：关税带来通胀压力，而更紧的移民政策对住房市场形成通缩效应；在今年净移民接近 0 且公寓供给过剩下，空置率上升、租金下行，但移民劳动力依赖度高的餐饮、酒店与休闲等部门的成本压力可能上升。
US macro data opened the year with a positive surprise: markets had expected December CPI to rise as disruptions from last year’s federal shutdown faded, but it did not. Both headline and core inflation are at their lowest levels of the post-pandemic inflation cycle that began in 2021, while core goods inflation—where tariff effects should be most visible—remains just 1.4%, undercutting fears of an immediate tariff-driven price jump.
Markets still withheld a “Goldilocks” celebration because alternative gauges implied firmer underlying inflation. Measures such as the trimmed mean, median, “sticky-price,” and the Fed’s “supercore” (services inflation excluding shelter) collectively suggest inflation is gently rising and sits at or above the Fed’s 3% upper target. Omair Sharif argues core inflation is likely still closer to 3.0% and estimates that a handful of components with record drops and surges, netted together, alone reduced the core by 10 basis points.
Several monthly moves were unusually large: the wireless telephone services index fell 3.3% month on month, the second-biggest drop on record, and by itself lowered core inflation by 7.5 basis points; moving and storage fell 14.35%. Samuel Tombs adds that the Fed’s target core PCE deflator may rise more than core CPI because it includes food away from home, which jumped 0.7%. Policy cross-currents also complicate the outlook: tariff-related inflation pressure may be offset by housing disinflation from tighter immigration, with net immigration nearing zero and a glut of apartments implying higher vacancies and lower rents, even as labor-sensitive sectors like restaurants, hospitality, and leisure face higher cost pressures.