就业的其他指标也偏弱。非农就业因「延后离职」计划而剧烈波动：10 月减少 105,000，11 月增加 64,000。即使排除一次性因素，在 11 个大类中，过去三个月只有休闲与餐旅、教育与健康服务、以及营建出现成长；同时平均时薪年增率降至 3.5%，为 2021 年 5 月以来最慢。报告还显示「因经济原因」而做兼职的人数自 460 万跳升至 550 万，幅度大到令人质疑。
关门也让联准会更难判读趋势。失业率上升 12 个基点中，约 10 个基点可能来自「暂时性裁员」，但分类可能不一致；此外 10 月失业率缺失、回收率偏低，让噪音更大。BLS 表示本月需 0.26 个百分点的变动才具统计显著性，而 9 月门槛为 0.21。即便如此，市场仍大致押注明年约两次降息；在缺乏根本性政策冲击下，基准情境是失业率将继续缓步走高。
A data fog from the shutdown may be pushing the US labor market from “not great” to “outright bad.” The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.4% in September and a recent low of 4.0% in January. Even so, futures still price only about a 1-in-4 chance of a January rate cut, showing investors remain unsure.
Other job indicators look weak. Nonfarm payrolls swung sharply because of a deferred-resignation program: down 105,000 in October and up 64,000 in November. Even after stripping out the one-off effect, only 3 of 11 major categories grew over the past three months; meanwhile average hourly earnings growth cooled to 3.5%, the weakest since May 2021. The report also showed part-time for economic reasons jumping to 5.5 million from 4.6 million, a move big enough to invite skepticism.
The shutdown also makes the Fed’s trend reading harder. “Temporary layoffs” may explain about 10 basis points of a 12-basis-point unemployment-rate increase, but classification can be inconsistent; the missing October rate and lower responses add noise. The BLS said the rate “required a 0.26 percentage point change to be statistically significant,” versus 0.21 in September. Even so, markets still largely imply about two cuts next year; absent a fundamental policy jolt, the base case is unemployment keeps ticking higher.
