2015年油价暴跌后，主要石油公司（supermajors）大幅削减勘探支出，尤其是在全球南方地区，年度油气发现量明显下滑；随伊朗战争引发的新一轮地缘冲击，超大油企正加速将供应来源从中东向其他地区分散。文章比较了时点变化：战争前虽已出现回流迹象，但更多集中于东拉美，来自埃克森美孚在圭亚那的重大发现；同样，像道达尔能源这样在中东加大投入的公司也在重新调整布局。

伍德·麦肯锡预计，七大西方公司对非洲的上游油气投资在2026—2030年将达到640亿美元，较前五年新增的410亿美元显著上升，并使其占总体上游投资比重从10.6%提升到13.5%。在实际动作上，代表性案例包括道达尔能源9月获得利比里亚四张离岸勘探许可、英国石油10月宣布加蓬近海勘探、埃尼2月在象牙海岸发现油藏，以及埃克森美孚、壳牌、艾克森诺尔在安哥拉的扩张；Rystad显示全球42个“高影响力”油井中有17个在非洲，且多数为超深水（1500米以上）。

非洲油气产量近年基本持平，仅略高于每日电当量油1000万桶，非洲能源委员会预计到2030年可达1360万桶/日。若伊朗战争促使西方公司增加非洲钻井并将部分中东计划投资转移，产量可能进一步上行；尽管非洲自身仍有不稳定风险，但在替代供应有限、各国要求能源安全多元化、且非洲需求预计显著增长的背景下，“下一次圭亚那”式高回报机会成为企业竞争驱动的核心吸引力。

In the wake of the 2015 oil-price collapse, major oil companies cut exploration spending sharply—especially in the global south—causing a notable fall in annual discoveries, and the Iran-war shock is now pushing supermajors to diversify away from the Middle East. Before the war, interest was already returning to frontier regions, particularly eastern Latin America after ExxonMobil’s major Guyana discovery, while firms like TotalEnergies had recently scaled up in the Middle East.

Wood Mackenzie projects that upstream oil-and-gas investment by the seven biggest Western companies in Africa will total $64bn in 2026–2030, up from $41bn in the previous five years, lifting its share of total upstream spending from 10.6% to 13.5%. Corporate actions mirror the data: TotalEnergies won four offshore licenses in Liberia, BP announced exploration off Gabon, Eni reported a discovery in Ivory Coast, and ExxonMobil, Shell and Equinor are expanding in Angola; Rystad also identifies 17 of 42 global “high-impact” oil wells in Africa, mostly ultra-deepwater wells deeper than 1,500 metres.

African oil-and-gas output has been broadly flat at just over 10 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while the African Energy Chamber expects it to rise to 13.6m barrels per day by 2030. If Iran-war-driven shifts in investment redirect some planned spending from the Middle East to Africa, output could increase further, and the case is reinforced by favourable fiscal terms, rising local demand, and global demand for diversified supply under energy-security pressure, though African political instability remains a persistent risk.

Source: War with Iran could accelerate Africa’s oil revival

Subtitle: Favourable geology and new technologies make it an attractive place to drill

Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 03:22 上午