春晚这一时长四小时、在农历新年前夜于北京上演的国家电视节目，在2月16日把持剑人形机器人武术表演设为核心节目，并出现了4个“人形机器人加持”的节目，凸显了文化展示与技术展示的并行。全球人形机器人交付量从2024年的约3,000台跃升至去年的14,500多台，几乎全部来自中国，其中Agibot和Unitree合计约占四分之三，而特斯拉Optimus仅出货150台。
这些数字支撑了超大规模预期，也暴露了当下需求薄弱：摩根士丹利预测到2050年可能有10亿台人形机器人、年支出超过7.5万亿美元，但目前多数采购仍偏展示用途。若无地方政府采购，维持中国100多家整机企业及其数千家供应商将很困难，且在工厂场景中这类机器人搬运箱子的效率通常仅为人类的30%-40%。
长三角供应链集群体现出显著集中与迁移趋势：常州武进声称可就地配齐约90%的零部件，全国前30家上市机器人零部件供应商按市值计有四分之三位于该区域。该区域还贡献中国电动车产量的五分之二，并推动本土替代（如Fine Motion的相关减速器份额从2021年的十分之一升至2024年的四分之一）；但在单台售价超10万元、可低至2,200元租赁且上海单一数据中心可容纳100台机器人的扩张路径下，若真实需求跟不上，泡沫风险正在上升。
The four-hour state TV gala staged in Beijing on Lunar New Year’s Eve made a sword-wielding humanoid martial-arts performance its February 16 centerpiece and featured 4 humanoid-enhanced acts, signaling a dual display of culture and technology. Global humanoid deliveries jumped from about 3,000 in 2024 to more than 14,500 last year, with nearly all units from China; Agibot and Unitree contributed about three-quarters combined, while Tesla shipped only 150 Optimus robots.
Those figures support outsized expectations but also expose weak current demand: Morgan Stanley projects as many as 1 billion humanoids by 2050 with annual spending above $7.5 trillion, yet most purchases today remain show-oriented. Without local-government buying, sustaining China’s 100-plus humanoid makers and their thousands of suppliers would be difficult, and in factory settings these robots are typically only 30-40% as efficient as humans at box-handling tasks.
The Yangtze River Delta supply chain shows strong concentration and reallocation: Wujin district in Changzhou claims about 90% local parts coverage, and three-quarters of the top 30 listed Chinese robot-parts suppliers by market capitalization are based in the region. The cluster also accounts for two-fifths of China’s EV output and is driving import substitution (for example, Fine Motion’s relevant reducer share rose from one-tenth in 2021 to one-quarter in 2024); however, with unit prices above 100,000 yuan, rental rates as low as 2,200 yuan, and a Shanghai data center that can host 100 humanoids, expansion is accelerating faster than proven real-world demand, increasing bubble risk.
Source: China’s humanoids are dazzling the world. Who will buy them?
Subtitle: The market for robot dancers, alas, is limited
Dateline: 2月 19, 2026 04:53 上午 | CHANGZHOU, HANGZHOU AND SHANGHAI