自2021年恢复增长以来，中国去年售出2380万辆汽车，较2024年高约4%，但第四季度每个月的销量都同比下滑，显示出一个转折点。乘联会预计今年销量持平，而伯恩斯坦预计将收缩5%至9%，表明下行风险占优。

需求正在走弱，因为在2024年末把购车需求前置的以旧换新补贴正在缩减、5%至10%的新能源汽车购置税正在实施，而且更严格的规则正在限制经销商“零公里”自注册出口渠道；即使是新能源汽车销量，在多年高速增长后也可能下滑。在产能过剩仍然较高的情况下，国内价格战可能进一步加剧，尽管2月12日出台了禁止低于制造成本销售的规则，但其执法力度仍不确定。

市场力量已经翻转：2018年外国品牌约占中国市场的五分之三，但其合计份额此后已减半至约十分之三，本土新能源汽车领军者则完成接管。随着国内增长停滞，伯恩斯坦预测2026年出口将再增10%至15%，达到650万至700万辆，而2018年约为75万辆，这会给已经承受巨额新能源汽车减值的全球既有车企带来更大压力。

Since returning to growth in 2021, China sold 23.8m cars last year, about 4% above 2024, but sales fell year on year in every month of the final quarter, signaling a turning point. CPCA projects flat sales this year, while Bernstein expects a 5-9% contraction, indicating downside skew.

Demand is weakening as the late-2024 scrappage subsidy that pulled purchases forward is scaled back, a new 5-10% EV purchase tax is imposed, and tighter rules curb dealers’ “zero-mile” self-registration export channel; even EV sales may dip after years of rapid growth. With overcapacity still high, the domestic price war is likely to intensify despite February 12 rules banning below-cost sales, whose enforcement remains uncertain.

Market power has flipped: foreign brands held roughly three-fifths of China’s market in 2018, but their combined share has since fallen by half to around three-tenths as local EV leaders took over. As domestic growth stalls, Bernstein forecasts exports rising another 10-15% in 2026 to 6.5m-7m vehicles versus about 750,000 in 2018, adding global pressure on incumbents already absorbing large EV write-downs.

Source: Beware China’s shrinking car market

Subtitle: The resulting flood of exports will be good news for consumers. Less so for the world’s carmakers

Dateline: 2月 19, 2026 04:17 上午 | SHANGHAI