西弗吉尼亚州的公共卫生形象呈现明显反差：与邻近俄亥俄州县约 93% 的 MMR 接种率相比，该州接种几乎全民化。尽管 2025 年麻疹在所有接壤州蔓延，西弗吉尼亚州报告病例为 0，显示其严格学校疫苗要求与更强群体防护之间的统计关联。
全国趋势显示疫苗犹豫已明显政治化：基于宗教或哲学理由的公立学校接种豁免在疫情后大致翻倍，并且在 2024 年投票给特朗普的州中，增速是投票给哈里斯州的 2.6 倍。西弗吉尼亚州在州长行政令后出现突增，非医疗豁免申请从 0 升至 2025-26 学年的 697 例，把政策争议迅速转化为可量化的行为变化。
这场法律冲突的风险主要体现在资金与时间窗口上：联邦部门警告限制宗教豁免可能影响“儿童疫苗计划”资金，而该州约一半儿童符合资格。行为数据也显示“早期偏低、入学前追赶”的模式，13 个月时西弗吉尼亚州仅约一半儿童接种首剂 MMR（马萨诸塞州约四分之三），但到幼儿园阶段其接种率又位居全国前列，同时肯尼迪民调净支持率为 -4（高于副总统 -14 和特朗普 -18）使反强制叙事更具传播力。
West Virginia’s public-health profile shows a sharp contrast: while neighboring Ohio counties sit around a 93% MMR vaccination rate, the state is nearly universal. Even as measles spread through every bordering state in 2025, West Virginia reported 0 cases, indicating a statistical link between strict school mandates and stronger population protection.
The national trend shows vaccine hesitancy has become more politically concentrated: religious or philosophical exemptions to public-school vaccination roughly doubled after the pandemic, and the rise was 2.6 times steeper in states that voted for Trump in 2024 than in states that voted for Harris. West Virginia then showed an abrupt policy-response jump, with non-medical exemption requests moving from 0 to 697 by the 2025-26 school year after the governor’s order.
The legal fight’s risk is concentrated in funding and timing: federal officials warned that limiting religious exemptions could threaten Vaccines for Children support, and about half of West Virginia children are eligible. Behavior data also shows a “late catch-up” pattern, with only about half receiving a first MMR dose by 13 months in West Virginia versus about three-quarters in Massachusetts, then rising to among the nation’s highest rates by kindergarten, while Kennedy’s net approval of -4 (versus -14 for the vice-president and -18 for Trump) gives anti-mandate messaging broader reach.
Source: The front line in America’s child-vaccine battle
Subtitle: How far can RFK junior push state policies? West Virginia will provide an answer
Dateline: 2月 19, 2026 04:32 上午 | Wheeling