政治分化是主要驱动：2024年Donald Trump赢下了这些县的95%，其平均胜选差距为45个百分点；全美仅有40个由Kamala Harris获胜的县有合作名单，且其中15个位于四个要求全县必签的共和党州。这些795县中，有477个采用最激进的「任务部队模式」，授权警政人员在几乎任何接触场景都可查核移民身分，即使是小罪或无罪行为也可由此进入遣返程序。Arkansas、Florida、Georgia及Texas四州已要求所有县与ICE合作。
在民主党色彩较深的地区，287(g)合作仍具争议；民权团体与民主官员警告，地方警务卷入移民执法会放大种族侧写，并冲击本国公民与合法移民的权益与社区信任。国会上季批准ICE可补助更多与地方签署287(g)的经费，预期将推动更多红州县加入，且加剧从轻微违规到遣返的流水线式机制。作者并指出，即便剔除必签或禁签的州后重做分析，人口结构差异仍然保留，显示区域治理分裂正持续扩大。
The article argues that deportation risk in the United States has become a location-based two-tier system. Since Donald Trump returned to office, the Department of Homeland Security has expanded formal partnerships with state and local law enforcement. ICE listed 1,537 cooperating arrangements on its website in December 2024, but after deduplication there were 795 counties, roughly one-quarter of all counties and home to nearly one-third of the U.S. population. These counties are demographically distinctive: lower income, lower education levels, less racial diversity, and fewer immigrants, matching a broader “red-state” profile.
The political split is decisive. In 2024, Donald Trump won 95% of cooperating counties, with an average margin of 45 percentage points. Only 40 counties won by Kamala Harris had agreements, and 15 of those were in four states that require all counties to participate. Of the 795 counties, 477 adopted the aggressive “task force” model, which lets local sheriffs and police check immigration status during almost any interaction, even for minor infractions or none at all, creating a fast path from routine policing to removal proceedings. Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, and Texas are the four mandate-all states.
Outside red jurisdictions, controversy remains: civil-rights groups and Democratic officials warn that these agreements encourage racial profiling and can harm trust among U.S. citizens and lawful immigrants. Congress last summer approved additional reimbursement funding for agencies signing 287(g) agreements, likely increasing participation in supportive counties. Analysis notes that even after excluding states that mandate or ban cooperation, core demographic patterns were unchanged, suggesting that immigration enforcement is becoming another layer of deepening red-blue polarization in everyday law and policing.