唐纳德·特朗普的海上行动迄今主要集中在委内瑞拉和哥伦比亚海域炸毁小艇，至少造成76人死亡，这些打击几乎可以肯定是非法的。五角大楼称这些船只运载的是运往美国的毒品。海军最大的航母“杰拉尔德·R·福特”号已抵达加勒比海。墨西哥应当警惕：墨西哥的帮派，而不是委内瑞拉或哥伦比亚的匪徒，是造成大约每年5万美国人死于芬太尼的主要来源。

克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆把安全作为优先：墨西哥的帮派与每年约3万起谋杀案有关。自2024年10月上任以来，她的政府声称谋杀减少了32%——这个数字夸大了进展，但反映了一个真实的下降趋势。逮捕人数以及武器和毒品缴获量上升，过境美国的芬太尼缴获量大幅下降（尽管贩运者可能已经改变了走私方式）。谢因鲍姆是近年来第一个削弱帮派势力的墨西哥领导人。

然而这只是开始。政府在安全上支出不到GDP的1%，其2026年计划将安全部预算削减18%，而当帮派控制着国家大片地区时这是不可接受的。官员们必须对进展保持诚实，调查与犯罪集团有可信联系的政治人物，并维持对安全和刑事司法的投资。若暴力不能持续下降，经济改革与投资将难以为继——而特朗普可能会试图单方面介入。

Donald Trump’s naval campaign has so far focused on blowing up small boats off Venezuela and Colombia, killing at least 76 people in strikes that are almost certainly illegal. The Pentagon says the vessels carried drugs bound for the United States. The USS Gerald R. Ford has arrived in the Caribbean. Mexico should be alarmed: Mexico’s gangs, not Venezuelan or Colombian mobsters, are the principal source of the fentanyl that causes about 50,000 American deaths a year.

Claudia Sheinbaum prioritises security: Mexican gangs are linked to roughly 30,000 murders a year. Since taking office in October 2024 her government claims a 32% fall in murders — a figure that overstates gains but reflects a genuine downward trend. Arrests and seizures of weapons and drugs are up, and fentanyl seizures at the US border are way down (though smugglers may have shifted methods). Sheinbaum is the first recent Mexican leader to curb gang power.

Yet much more is required. The government spends less than 1% of GDP on security and its draft 2026 plan cuts the security ministry’s budget by 18%, which is indefensible while gangs control large parts of the country. Officials must be honest about progress, investigate politicians credibly linked to criminal groups, and sustain investment in security and criminal justice. Without lasting reductions in violence, economic reform and investment will fail — and Mr Trump might try to intervene unilaterally.