在结束了埃塞俄比亚北部21世纪最致命冲突之一的和平协议签署三年之后，协议正在瓦解：总理阿比·艾哈迈德正在忽视它，TPLF领导人和提格雷武装准备重返战场，并且在提格雷南部边界爆发了小规模冲突，遭到埃塞俄比亚军队的无人机打击。原来的战争可能造成了数十万人的死亡；在11月7日，TPLF指责政府实施“灭绝战略”，强调了再次爆发大规模暴力的高度风险。

再次爆发的战争很可能会将暴力区域扩大到整个非洲之角的多国范围，牵涉厄立特里亚、苏丹以及跨境的战斗人员、武器和难民流动。埃塞俄比亚约有1.3亿人口，自2018年阿比上任以来有多民族起义的历史，面临关于厄立特里亚港口的冲突风险（厄立特里亚在1993年独立）以及厄立特里亚部队可能与TPLF并肩参战的可能性。苏丹同时发生的内战增加了各自冲突合并为区域性战争的可能性。

外部大国——尤其是阿联酋（一个重要的赞助者）、埃及、沙特阿拉伯和美国——是缓和局势的最佳杠杆。厄立特里亚去年与埃及签署了安全协议，并寻求与沙特建立更紧密的关系；美国可以直接并通过海湾盟友影响阿比和厄立特里亚的伊赛亚斯·阿夫韦尔基。美国外交推动了克制（与2020年形成对比），包括Massad Boulos在九月的访问以及对一些提格雷官员的制裁威胁。本文敦促这些大国施压所有各方遵守2022年的和平协议；阻止战争比试图结束战争更容易。

Three years after a peace deal that ended one of the 21st century's deadliest conflicts in northern Ethiopia, the agreement is unravelling: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is ignoring it, TPLF leaders and Tigray forces are poised to return to battle, and skirmishes have erupted on Tigray's southern border, met with Ethiopian army drone strikes. The original war may have killed hundreds of thousands; on November 7th the TPLF accused the government of a "strategy of extermination," underscoring a high risk of renewed mass violence.

Renewed war would likely expand a multi-country violence zone across the Horn of Africa, involving Eritrea, Sudan and cross-border flows of fighters, arms and refugees. Ethiopia, with about 130m people and a history of multi-ethnic insurgencies since Abiy took office in 2018, faces risks of conflict over Eritrean ports (Eritrea seceded in 1993) and possible Eritrean troop involvement alongside the TPLF. Sudan's simultaneous civil war increases the chance that separate conflicts will merge into a regional war.

Outside powers — notably the UAE (a key patron), Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United States — are the best levers to de-escalate. Eritrea signed a security pact with Egypt last year and has sought closer Saudi ties; America can influence Abiy and Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki directly and via Gulf partners. US diplomacy has pushed restraint (contrasting 2020), including a September visit by Massad Boulos and threats of sanctions on some Tigrayan officials. The paper urges these powers to press all parties to honor the 2022 peace deal; preventing war is easier than trying to end one.