作者认为「现在违约」未必是最坏结果，因为拖延只会让可供债权人分配的资产被逐步掏空。最大股东深铁持股27%，要求为既有、原本无担保的股东借款200亿元补作抵押；截至6月，万科未质押的投资性房地产仅510亿元，但无担保借款约990亿元、公司债余额440亿元，外加深铁股东借款也要求抵押，导致即使立即清算，债权人也将在更稀薄的资产池中竞争回收率。
在岸债遭否决与银行风险偏好转变相关：该20亿元债中约85%由银行持有，而截至6月，银行贷款中有担保占比已超过60%，相比两年前约10%大幅上升。作者解读，万科拿不到展期支持也反映监管未透过「窗口指导」要求银行「展期续借」，市场应正视深铁并非无条件救助方，及早收尾以免资产被进一步抵押或转移。
The piece (dated Dec. 16, 2025) says China Vanke failed to win enough support to delay paying a 2 billion yuan ($283 million) bond due Monday, raising default risk. It must repay within five business days or reach another deal, and it later offered 60 million yuan of interest by Dec. 22 to sweeten the plan.
It argues an immediate default may be better for creditors than prolonged “zombie” survival that drains recoverable assets. Shenzhen Metro, Vanke’s largest shareholder with a 27% stake, sought collateral for 20 billion yuan of previously unsecured shareholder loans, and Vanke pledged its entire stake in Onewo; as of June, unpledged investment properties were 51 billion yuan versus about 99 billion yuan of unsecured loans and 44 billion yuan of corporate bonds outstanding, plus Shenzhen Metro loans now seeking collateral.
The rejection is tied to banks’ shifting stance: roughly 85% of the 2-billion-yuan notes were held by banks, and secured lending exceeded 60% of bank loans as of June, up from around 10% two years earlier. The author reads the failed vote as a sign there is no regulator-led “extend-and-pretend” window guidance and no too-big-to-fail rescue, so creditors should confront losses before more assets are encumbered.
