冲击集中在劳力密集产业：印尼自 2022 年以来约有 60 家纺织工厂关闭，估计流失约 25 万个工作；业界还警告 2025 年可能再有 50 万个职位面临风险，几年内等于抹去该行业四分之一的工作。印尼人口超过 2.8 亿并非孤例；泰国去年约记录 2,000 家工厂停工，官员把廉价中国进口列为主要因素。
外溢也正走向更高端领域：从电动车、电池到制药与机器人，在国家融资与产业政策支撑下的产能过剩正重塑市场。经济学家把它称为「中国冲击 2.0」，并以 1999–2007 年的第一轮为鉴——那一轮与美国近四分之一制造业工作流失相关。尽管东南亚对美出口在 9 月同比上升约 23%（以越南、泰国领先），但成长未必转化为稳定青年就业；文章主张以提升企业效率、协调区域贸易防卫、扩大再培训与收入支持来分摊冲击，否则经济挫折恐转为政治波动。
China is betting on manufacturing and exports: with domestic demand stalled and property still dragging, its annual trade surplus has topped $1 trillion. A surge of cheap Chinese goods, combined with US President Donald Trump’s tariff war, is squeezing Asia’s trade-led economies and leaving Gen-Z—already hit by stagnant wages and rising living costs—facing fewer entry-level factory jobs and a more crowded white-collar ladder for graduates.
The damage is most visible in labor-intensive sectors. In Indonesia, about 60 textile factories have closed since 2022, costing an estimated 250,000 jobs; industry groups warn another 500,000 jobs could be at risk in 2025—effectively erasing one in four positions in the sector within a few years. Indonesia, with 280+ million people, is not alone: Thailand logged roughly 2,000 factory shutdowns last year, with officials citing cheap Chinese imports as a major driver.
Spillovers are also moving up the value chain: overcapacity backed by state finance is reshaping markets from EVs and batteries to pharmaceuticals and robotics. Economists label this “China Shock 2.0,” warning it could rival the 1999–2007 shock that contributed to the loss of nearly a quarter of US manufacturing jobs. Even where Southeast Asia’s exports to the US rose about 23% year-on-year in September (led by Vietnam and Thailand), the gains may not translate into secure youth employment; the article argues for productivity upgrades, coordinated regional trade defenses, and expanded retraining and income support to prevent economic frustration from hardening into political volatility.
