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在截至10月的10个月内,运往俄罗斯的中国无人机雷达设备出口均价,较2021年同期(2022年入侵前)飙升逾六倍;同期间,对世界其他地区的平均价格下降5%,而对
在截至10月的10个月内,运往俄罗斯的中国无人机雷达设备出口均价,较2021年同期(2022年入侵前)飙升逾六倍;同期间,对世界其他地区的平均价格下降5%,而对俄出货量按体量下滑9%。这显示在西方制裁令俄方替代来源有限之际,俄罗斯对中国供应的依赖被进一步放大。

其他具军民两用风险的零部件也呈现「俄罗斯上涨、其他地区持平或下跌」的分化:用于多机控制的无线通讯设备对俄均价上升20%,而对其他地区大致持平;导弹激光制导系统对俄价格上涨56%,对其他目的地下跌32%。文中亦提到蜂群攻击通常涉及数十至数百架无人机,可能推高俄方需求与议价压力。

芬兰银行新兴经济体研究所(BOFIT)对受制裁领域的全部中国产品出口价格估算显示:2021至2024年对俄出口均价平均上升87%,而对其他目的地仅上升9%。同时,中国在俄罗斯进口中的占比由2021年前后约20%提高至入侵后约40%,在北京未加入制裁的背景下,强劲需求与供应收缩共同推动了对俄价格大幅抬升。

In the 10 months through October, Chinese export prices for drone radar equipment shipped to Russia surged more than sixfold versus the same period of 2021 (pre-2022 invasion). Over the same window, average prices to the rest of the world fell 5%, while Russia-bound volumes slipped 9%, highlighting Russia’s tightening dependence on China under Western sanctions.

Other dual-use components show the same Russia-specific inflation. Wireless communication equipment used to control multiple drones rose 20% for Russia while staying roughly flat elsewhere, and laser guidance systems jumped 56% for Russia compared with a 32% drop for other destinations; swarm attacks often involve dozens to hundreds of drones, likely intensifying demand.

A broader BOFIT review of Chinese exports in sanction-hit fields finds average prices to Russia up 87% from 2021 to 2024, versus only a 9% increase for other markets. Over the same period, China’s share of Russia’s imports rose from about 20% through 2021 to roughly 40% since the invasion, giving suppliers more leverage and pushing Russia’s costs sharply higher.

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2025-12-16 (Tuesday) · ebc3d98ec3a7bf85d31197547488058619790cf1