美国特种部队1月3日在加拉加斯抓获委内瑞拉独裁者后，特朗普敦促委内瑞拉新统治者停止向古巴供应廉价石油，加剧停电并把哈瓦那推向谈判；他还警告古巴“接下来要倒下”，并敦促其“趁还来得及”达成协议。古巴掌权近七十年的共产主义体制监禁异见者、使公民贫困，并容许俄罗斯和中国在距佛罗里达不到200公里处运营监听站。
禁运带来有限让步：少数政治犯获释、改革宣布出台，3月16日承诺允许海外古巴人完全拥有在古巴的企业，而特朗普和鲁比奥仍表示政权更迭这一最高目标。军事压力已经上升，无人机在古巴上空侦察，尼米兹号航空母舰——美国11艘核动力航母之一——于5月20日抵达加勒比，同日劳尔·卡斯特罗被起诉，然而突袭或入侵将是非法、高风险且不太可能建立民主。
最不坏的路径是渐进过渡协议：更多石油、通过天主教会和非政府组织发放的1亿美元人道主义援助、面向每个古巴人的卫星互联网，作为交换，更多释放囚犯、减少镇压并开放私人投资。古巴比委内瑞拉更穷，缺乏大型石油储备和法治，在许多年轻人出逃后人口老迈疲惫，因此旅游业和农田的经济开放很可能需要先于缓慢的政治变革。
After U.S. special forces seized Venezuela’s dictator on January 3rd, Trump pressed Venezuela’s new ruler to end cheap oil to Cuba, worsening blackouts and pushing Havana toward talks; he also warned Cuba was “going down” and urged a deal “before it is too late.” Cuba’s communist system, in power for nearly seven decades, has jailed dissidents, impoverished citizens, and hosts Russian and Chinese listening posts less than 200km from Florida.
The embargo has yielded limited concessions: a few political prisoners freed, reforms announced, and on March 16th a pledge to let Cubans abroad wholly own businesses in Cuba, while Trump and Rubio still signal a maximal goal of regime change. Military pressure has risen, with drones over Cuba, the USS Nimitz—one of 11 U.S. nuclear-powered carriers—arriving in the Caribbean on May 20th, and Raúl Castro indicted the same day, yet a raid or invasion would be illegal, risky, and unlikely to build democracy.
The least-bad path is a gradual transition deal: more oil, $100m in humanitarian aid routed through the Catholic church and NGOs, satellite internet for every Cuban, and in return more prisoner releases, less repression, and private investment. Cuba is poorer than Venezuela, lacks major oil reserves and rule of law, has an old and tired population after many young people fled, so economic opening in tourism and farmland would probably need to precede slow political change.
Source: Attacking Cuba would be a huge mistake
Subtitle: But Donald Trump could make a deal with the communist regime
Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 03:36 上午