巴西仍是世界上最不平等的国家之一，官方人口超过2.13亿，地理差异从亚马逊到南方有德裔和意裔后裔城镇都非常鲜明。圣保罗精英每天约有2,000次直升机出行，而在亚马逊圣特雷姆有96%的居民没有下水道；自2010年代以来分裂加剧：经过三十年民主后，卢拉的工人党因腐败受损助推博尔索纳罗崛起，即便博尔索纳罗在2025年因策划政变入狱，随着10月大选临近，卢拉在80岁时仍宣布第七次竞选，而其家族则继续推出儿子弗拉维奥。

在瓜里巴斯（约4,500人）中，2022年有94%的选民投票给卢拉，塞塔昂地区的降雨季后接连8个月干旱，约13%的地区已进入重度荒漠化。卢拉时期推出的“家庭补助金”与“零饥饿”计划，连同供水、诊所和农业扶持，旨在降低贫困；其中“家庭补助金”向家庭户主（多为女性）按月发放约680雷亚尔（136美元），人均月收入低于44美元者可申领，年支出约320亿美元（占GDP的1.2%）。

这些政策据称将日均生活费低于3美元的人口从2002年的约3000万降到今天不足700万；卢拉时期的福利仍覆盖约1900万户家庭，约占全部家庭的四分之一，其中700万家庭连续领取十年以上。体系中也存在漏洞：瓜里巴斯人口普查仅有151个单亲家庭，而福利登记却有617份单亲申报；在南部新帕乌达约90%选民支持博尔索纳罗，反映了纳税者对福利“撒钱”的反感与仍依赖救助者之间的分裂。

Brazil remains one of the world’s most unequal societies, with an official population of more than 213m and stark geographic contrasts from the Amazon to southern German- and Italian-settled towns. In São Paulo, elites reportedly use around 2,000 helicopter trips a day, while in Santarém 96% of residents have no sewerage; in the 2010s polarization intensified as Lula’s Workers’ Party weakened by corruption helped Bolsonaro rise, and even after Bolsonaro’s 2025 coup-plot conviction, Lula at 80 launched a seventh bid as elections approach in October and Bolsonaro’s camp forwarded his son Flávio.

In Guaribas, with about 4,500 people and 94% support for Lula in 2022, the climate is severe with eight rainless months, and nearly 13% of the sertão is in advanced desertification. Lula-era programs like Bolsa Família and Fome Zero, plus related water, clinic, and agricultural support, were designed to reduce deprivation: Bolsa Família gives household heads—mostly women—about 680 reais ($136) per month, with eligibility when per-capita income is under $44, and total annual costs around $32bn, or 1.2% of GDP.

Those policies are credited with cutting Brazilians living on under $3 a day from about 30m in 2002 to under 7m today, and Bolsa Família still reaches 19m families (roughly one-quarter), with 7m on benefits for ten years or longer. The system also has leakage: Guaribas census records 151 single-parent households, while 617 welfare claims list a single parent, and in Nova Pádua about 90% backed Bolsonaro, showing a divide between taxpayers objecting to tax-funded handouts and beneficiaries still dependent on them.

Source: The two Brazils

Subtitle: GUARIBAS AND NOVA PÁDUA Brazilians of all stripes are drawn to a more moderate sort of politics

Dateline: The Economist May 2nd 2026