商务部将2026年总进口配额定为270万公吨，与2024年全国进口创纪录的287万公吨接近（约少6%）。2025年前11个月中国牛肉进口量为259万公吨，年减0.3%；部分国家在2025年前11个月的实际进口量高于新配额水准。
2024年中国自巴西进口134万公吨、阿根廷59.4567万、乌拉圭24.3662万、澳洲21.605万、纽西兰15.0514万、美国13.8112万。2025年前11个月巴西对华出货133万公吨；澳洲对华出口29.4957万公吨；美国仅5.5172万公吨（受3月多家美国工厂许可到期与关税冲突影响）。官方称进口增加「严重损害」国内产业；研究者认为措施可缓解繁殖母牛存栏下降并争取调整时间，且中国称肉牛养殖已连续7个月获利。
China will apply safeguard curbs on beef imports from key suppliers such as Brazil, Australia, and the United States: shipments above quota will face an additional 55% tariff. The policy starts January 1 and runs for three years, with total quotas rising each year, aiming to protect a domestic cattle sector emerging from oversupply.
For 2026, China set a total quota of 2.7 million metric tons, close to the 2.87 million tons it imported in record year 2024 (about 6% lower). In the first 11 months of 2025, China’s beef imports were 2.59 million tons, down 0.3% year on year; for some countries, the new quota levels sit below their 2025 Jan–Nov import pace.
By source in 2024, China imported 1.34 million tons from Brazil, 594,567 from Argentina, 243,662 from Uruguay, 216,050 from Australia, 150,514 from New Zealand, and 138,112 from the U.S. In 2025 through November, Brazil shipped 1.33 million tons to China, Australia 294,957 tons, while U.S. shipments were just 55,172 tons amid permit expirations and tariff tensions. Officials say rising imports harmed the domestic industry; analysts expect 2026 imports to fall, while China notes cattle farming has been profitable for seven straight months even as global beef shortages push prices higher.
