贸易动能也向BRI倾斜：2025年1—11月中国对BRI伙伴出口年增11.6%，高于全球出口年增5.4%；对美出口则年减18.9%。非洲25国自中国进口的太阳能板容量在截至2025年6月的12个月内年增60%，显示低碳产品外销扩张。
摩擦与政策变化加速此趋势：自2025年2月起美中互征关税与限制，4月双方对彼此商品加征逾100%关税；虽在2025年稍后与10月峰会后部分回撤，但紧张仍影响区域转口与低价外销疑虑。投资面上，2025年上半年中国在BRI伙伴的投资与建设合约达1,240亿美元，为2013年以来最高，并特别加码矿产资源丰富的非洲。
From January–November 2025, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partners accounted for 45% of China’s trade surplus—about $480 billion—overtaking the U.S. share for the first time. The BRI share rose 16 percentage points year on year to the highest level since 2013, while the U.S. share fell to 24%, down more than 10 points; by contrast, the U.S. had exceeded 90% of China’s overall surplus in 2018.
Trade growth also shifted toward BRI markets. China’s exports to BRI partners rose 11.6% year on year in January–November 2025, outpacing the 5.4% increase in China’s global exports, while exports to the U.S. declined 18.9%. In Africa, the solar-panel capacity imported from China by 25 countries increased 60% in the 12 months ended June 2025, signaling faster expansion in carbon-reduction exports.
Escalating frictions helped drive diversification: from February 2025, the U.S. and China imposed tit-for-tat tariffs and restrictions, and in April levied tariffs of over 100% on each other’s goods. Even after partial rollbacks later in 2025 and an October summit, tensions persisted, including concerns about rerouting exports via third countries and potential pushback from partners. Alongside trade, China expanded BRI investment, with combined investments and construction contracts reaching $124 billion in the first half of 2025—the highest since 2013—particularly in mineral-rich Africa.
