全球贸易历史上最具推动力的创新之一是标准化集装箱，其尺寸约40英尺乘8英尺，能在公路、铁路、船舶和飞机间无缝转运，被认为比过去50年的所有贸易协定加起来更能促进全球化。如今，全球化却在倒退，真正的主要阻力并非关税，而是标准。与关税可通过价格或利润消化不同，产品安全和环境标准等技术性措施常在短期内直接切断贸易。

数据表明，技术性非关税措施已成为贸易的最大拖累。1995年至2021年，世贸组织成员间的平均关税几乎下降了一半，但非关税措施同步激增，抵消了关税下降的效果。如今，这类措施影响全球贸易量的90%，是30年前的六倍。过去70年制定的2万多项标准中，超过一半诞生于21世纪之后。仅2024年，世贸组织就收到近6,500项关于技术壁垒和卫生安全规则的通报，是1995年的十倍。

非关税措施并非天然保护主义，但对发展中国家的限制尤为明显。发展中国家出口中更大比例属于食品和农产品，平均需遵守的技术法规数量是30年前的四倍。合规成本高昂，认证费用可达42.5万美元，而埃塞俄比亚相关审核员不足100人，德国却有1.2万人，使德国企业认证成本仅3,000至11,500美元。历史经验显示，标准若协调得当可提升效率与创新，但关键在于能力建设与广泛参与，否则标准将从促进贸易的工具演变为阻碍。

One of the greatest boosts to global trade came from the standard shipping container, roughly 40 feet by 8 feet, which enabled seamless transfer across trucks, trains, ships and planes and did more than all trade agreements of the past 50 years combined. Today globalisation is reversing, and the main culprit is not tariffs but standards. Unlike tariffs, which can be absorbed through prices or margins, product-safety and environmental standards can temporarily shut trade down entirely.

Evidence shows technical non-tariff measures have overtaken tariffs as the biggest drag on trade. Between 1995 and 2021 average WTO tariff rates nearly halved, but non-tariff measures surged, offsetting those gains. They now affect 90% of global trade by volume, six times their share three decades ago. Of the more than 20,000 standards created over the past 70 years, over half emerged after 2000. In 2024 alone, the WTO received nearly 6,500 notifications of technical barriers and health and safety rules, ten times the number in 1995.

Although such measures can legitimately protect health and the environment, their impact on developing countries is especially restrictive. These countries export more food and agricultural goods, now subject to four times as many technical regulations as 30 years ago. Compliance can cost up to $425,000, unaffordable for most firms, and capacity gaps are stark: Ethiopia has fewer than 100 ISO-related auditors versus Germany’s 12,000, leaving German firms with certification costs of just $3,000–$11,500. History shows standards can spur efficiency and innovation when well coordinated, but without capacity-building and inclusive participation they risk becoming barriers rather than enablers of trade.