稳定币被视为加密货币体系中较“稳健”的一类，可由美国国库券等美元资产支撑，理论上比比特币和梗币更安全，也更适合作为支付手段。美媒预期与法案背景下的政策推进叠加下，市场规模从约3000亿美元上调到2030年十倍、以及标准渣打对2028年2万亿美元的估算，反映出预期仍偏乐观，但更多是愿景而非已成现实。

美国国会先后推进Genius法案并准备Clarity法案，后者为参议院版本，后者比众议院更宽松，但争论核心仍是监管漏洞与金融安全。业内警告显示，若稳定币规模达2万亿美元且基本全部美元挂钩，银行存款可能收缩10%，从而使放贷端平均资金成本抬升约0.25个百分点，进而推高贷款利率。

尽管10家美英加欧日大型银行在10月成立研究小组探索稳定币，但实际供给端并未放量，市场半年内增速30%后基本停滞；与此相比比特币市值则从2.3万亿美元降至1.6万亿美元。实际支付与消费端采用率偏弱：弗吉尼亚州联储银行新研究与BCG/Allium数据均显示，近半数稳定币用于加密交易，少于1%用于支付，说明需求仍主要绑定于加密生态内部。

The U.S. stablecoin story is framed as a stability upgrade for crypto, but it remains mixed: after the July Genius Act, investors were promised a regulatory baseline while policymakers still debate the follow-on Clarity Act. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has pointed to a $300bn sector with room for major expansion, while Standard Chartered has even projected as much as $2tn by 2028.

The banking sector’s pushback centers on a deposit-substitute loophole, with the American Bankers Association warning that a $2tn dollar-pegged market could cut bank deposits by 10% and raise lenders’ funding costs by about 0.25 percentage points, potentially lifting borrowing rates broadly. Even as the House passed a stricter Clarity bill in July and the Senate readies a slightly looser version, Treasury has proposed treating stablecoin issuers like financial institutions under AML and KYC rules, raising compliance costs.

Yet demand still appears narrow: stablecoin assets rose 30% over six months to late October but then stalled, while Bitcoin fell from $2.3tn to $1.6tn. Research and transaction analytics converge that nearly half of stablecoins are used for crypto trading, with less than 1% used for payments, and tokenized finance is still only about $30bn, so the “financial revolution” thesis remains unproven while broader risk-off conditions persist.

Source: The stablecoin market has got too stable

Subtitle: Rapid growth in dollar-backed crypto has stalled

Dateline: 4月 23, 2026 03:40 上午