此回落削弱近几周房市改善的动能：抵押贷款利率下滑至多年低位区间、房价增速放缓，12 月成屋销售达两年来最强，新屋销售近月亦回到 2023 年水准。总统 President Donald Trump 的住房政策提案曾推升相关股票，但 NAHB 表示多数问卷回复在 2026-01-08 宣布 Fannie Mae 与 Freddie Mac 将购买 2,000 亿美元（USD 200 billion）按揭证券之前完成。
NAHB 首席经济学家 Robert Dietz 指出，劳工与土地短缺、监管与材料成本偏高仍在压抑信心。未来 6 个月销售预期指数自 9 月以来首次跌破 50；现况销售与潜在买家来客量指数早已低于 50，且 1 月续降。Zelman and Associates 分析师 Alan Ratner（1 月 13 日）称，受房价近期走弱影响，建商第一季毛利仍预期下滑；为因应高房价与利率仍约为 2021 年的 2 倍，承包商以降价与补贴利率等促销承担成本。1 月有 65% 建商使用促销诱因，连续第 10 个月高于 60%；40% 建商降价，与上月持平；区域上 South、Midwest、West 下滑，Northeast 上升。
The report timestamp is 2026-01-16 23:23 (UTC+8; original: January 16, 2026 at 11:23 PM GMT+8). The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo index of market conditions fell 2 points to 37 in January, the first decline since August, and below the Bloomberg-survey median expectation of 40. A reading under 50 indicates more builders view conditions as poor than good.
The drop interrupts recent housing momentum supported by mortgage rates sliding to a multi-year low range and slowing home-price growth: December sales of previously owned homes reached the strongest pace in two years, and new-home sales in recent months rose to 2023 levels. President Donald Trump’s housing proposals boosted related stocks, but NAHB said most responses were collected before the 2026-01-08 announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would buy USD 200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to push rates down.
NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz cited labor and lot shortages plus elevated regulatory and material costs as ongoing constraints. The six-month sales-expectations gauge fell below 50 for the first time since September; measures of present sales and prospective buyer traffic were already below 50 and fell again in January. Zelman and Associates analyst Alan Ratner (Jan. 13) said gross profits are still expected to decline in the first quarter amid recent home-price weakness; with prices still high and mortgage rates still about 2x 2021 levels, builders are using price cuts and costly incentives such as buying down borrowers’ mortgage rates. In January, 65% reported using incentives, the 10th straight month above 60%; 40% reported cutting prices, unchanged from the prior month; sentiment fell in the South, Midwest, and West, and rose in the Northeast.