依 Barclays 估算，若大型药厂愿意把杠杆提高到年度 EBITDA 的 2 倍，Merck & Co 可释出约 $38bn、AbbVie 可释出 $16bn、Eli Lilly 可释出 $56bn。文章将这一杠杆水准描述为仍相当保守。文中也指出，President Donald Trump 与 17 家药厂达成的定价协议，其财务影响没有市场最初担忧的那么沉重。
XBI Biotech Index 在过去一年上涨超过五分之二，已回到 2021 年底上次见到的水准，文章称大型公司可能会追求更大的交易。文中称 Merck 的 Keytruda 约贡献 Merck 营收的一半，最早将在 2028 年失去独占性。Bernstein 估计，全球制药业到 2030 年间的专利到期将威胁每年 $61bn 销售额；而在上月 JPMorgan Healthcare conference 上，Merck 表示正寻求「multi tens of billion-dollar」级别的交易。
Big recent pharmaceuticals transactions include Novartis’s $12bn acquisition of Avidity Biosciences, Pfizer’s $10bn bid for Metsera, and Gilead Sciences’ agreement to buy Arcellx for up to $7.8bn. Company bosses spent much of 2025 paralysed by tariff threats and uncertainty over US drug-pricing pressure, and most activity came after that uncertainty cleared. Fourth-quarter biopharma mergers and acquisitions nearly hit $95bn, according to Biomedtracker, and the article says that if this level holds, 2026 would be the best year in the past decade.
On Barclays’ estimates, if major pharma groups were willing to lift leverage to 2 times annual EBITDA, this would free about $38bn for Merck & Co, $16bn for AbbVie, and $56bn for Eli Lilly. The article describes this leverage level as still fairly conservative. It also states that the financial impact of pricing agreements President Donald Trump struck with 17 pharma companies is less onerous than the market initially feared.
The XBI Biotech Index has climbed more than two-fifths in the past year, reaching levels last seen in late 2021, and the article says larger companies are likely to pursue larger deals. Merck’s Keytruda, described as responsible for roughly half of Merck revenue, loses exclusivity as early as 2028. Bernstein estimates patent expiries across global pharma threaten $61bn in annual sales between now and 2030, and at last month’s JPMorgan Healthcare conference Merck said it was seeking deals in the “multi tens of billion-dollar” range.