傳統上，銀行家與投資者習慣以股市總市值來衡量保證金債務是否過高，就如同以房價評估房貸一樣。以此標準來看，散戶保證金債務僅佔標普500市值約2.25%，對沖基金的主經紀商餘額佔比也未超出歷史區間，看似風險可控。然而德意志銀行信用策略主管Steve Caprio指出，應以國內生產總值（GDP）而非股票市值作為衡量基準，因為股票本身可能被高估。以GDP為基準，散戶保證金貸款在六月底達到創紀錄的4.6%，對沖基金的借貸更是超過其兩倍，同樣可能創下歷史新高。
Situational Awareness的危機最終因Ken Griffin旗下的Citadel以折扣價接手其大部分持倉而化解，避免了一場可能波及更多槓桿投資者的連鎖拋售。然而獨立研究機構Sakonnet Research的Adam Josephson警告，不會每次都有「白衣騎士」出手相救，尤其當多家大型對沖基金同時陷入困境時。文章作者Paul J. Davies認為，這次有驚無險反而可能成為陷阱——投資者非但未從中汲取教訓，反而在KOSPI指數單日反彈18%後繼續加槓桿買入，將本應是警告的暴跌視為下一波債務驅動投機的跳板。
The AI-driven stock boom of 2026 has been fueled by massive leverage from both hedge funds and retail investors. Aggressive margin borrowing amplified gains in chipmakers and tech stocks, pushing South Korea's KOSPI index up nearly 120% by mid-June before a brutal 40% selloff hit by late July. Around 3.5% of Korean adults received margin calls, and the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness saw its assets collapse from $45 billion to $10 billion in just weeks. While some deleveraging has occurred, total Korean margin debt fell only 10% by the end of July, and hedge fund borrowing remains in the middle of its recent range.
Wall Street's traditional method of measuring leverage risk—comparing margin debt to stock market capitalization—has offered false comfort. By that yardstick, retail margin debt at 2.25% of the S&P 500 and hedge fund prime balances at 5.5% appeared within historical norms. However, Deutsche Bank strategist Steve Caprio argues that debt should be measured against GDP instead, since inflated stock valuations can mask the true scale of borrowing. On that basis, retail margin loans reached a record 4.6% of annualized US GDP at the end of June, while hedge fund borrowing was more than double that figure—levels that historically coincide with the peaks of investment cycles.
The near-disaster was averted largely because Ken Griffin's Citadel stepped in to buy Situational Awareness's holdings at a discount, preventing a fire sale that could have triggered cascading margin calls across the market. Independent analyst Adam Josephson warns that such a rescue cannot be counted on in the future, especially if multiple large funds are in distress simultaneously. Rather than heeding the warning, investors appear emboldened: the KOSPI surged 18% in a single day and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rallied sharply in the aftermath. Paul J. Davies cautions that this near miss may prove more dangerous than a full crash, as it encourages further debt-fueled speculation instead of prudent risk management.