随着霍尔木兹海峡的关闭，对全长80公里的巴拿马运河的需求激增，接近每日36至40艘次的运力上限，其中液化天然气货轮的通行量在4月份同比几乎翻了一番。尽管只承载了全球5%至6%的海运贸易，但该运河作为能源通道的作用正在增强，目前每天运输100万桶液化石油气。作为回应，运河管理局局长里考特·巴斯克斯·莫拉莱斯启动了价值85亿美元的扩建项目，其中包括一条每天可增加250万桶运力的跨地峡管道。交通量的激增使4月和5月的通行权拍卖价格从原先的13.5万至14万美元飙升至约38.5万至42.5万美元，单个舱位最高拍出400万美元。因此，在截至2025年9月的财政年度中，运河向巴拿马国库贡献了创纪录的30亿美元，占国家财政收入的五分之一以上。
未来的运河管理者，包括定于10月接任的伊利亚·埃斯皮诺·德·马罗塔，必须应对严峻的气候脆弱性。2023至2024年的干旱曾迫使运河管理局将每日通行量削减至18艘次的低点，导致主要航运公司绕道好望角。为了保障水资源，运河管理局于2025年批准了因迪奥河水库项目。该项目计划于2032年完工，代价是需要重新安置2000名居民，预计在干旱年份该水库能提供充足的水源以支持每日约11.5艘次的额外通行量，从而确保运河未来50年的运营可行性。
地缘政治紧张局势使这个拥有460万人口的巴拿马的运营变得更加复杂。由于超过70%的运河交通往返于美国，唐纳德·特朗普威胁要“收回”这条水道并对全球关键海峡展开了调查。在美国的压力下，巴拿马最近退出了中国的“一带一路”倡议，其最高法院也宣布与总部位于香港的和记黄埔签署的港口特许经营合同违宪，并将港口转交给欧洲公司。这引发了北京方面的报复；中国港口在3月份扣留了123艘被扣船只中的91艘巴拿马籍船只，这一数字在4月份进一步上升至136艘。
Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, demand for the 80km Panama Canal surged near its daily capacity of 36 to 40 transits, with LNG cargo transits nearly doubling in April year-over-year. Although handling 5% to 6% of global maritime trade, the canal’s role as an energy corridor is growing, currently moving 1 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) daily. In response, administrator Ricaurte Vásquez Morales launched $8.5 billion in expansion projects, including a cross-isthmus pipeline to add 2.5 million barrels of daily capacity. This traffic spike drove auctioned transit costs from $135,000–$140,000 to $385,000–$425,000 in April and May, with a single slot peaking at $4 million. Consequently, in the fiscal year ending September 2025, the canal contributed a record $3 billion to Panama's treasury, accounting for over one-fifth of state revenue.
Future administrators, including incoming chief Ilya Espino de Marotta in October, must navigate severe climate vulnerabilities. The 2023–2024 drought previously forced the authority to slash daily transits to a low of 18, diverting major shippers around the Cape of Good Hope. To secure water resources, the authority approved the Indio River reservoir project in 2025. Scheduled for completion by 2032 at the cost of displacing 2,000 residents, the reservoir is projected to supply enough water to support approximately 11.5 additional daily transits during dry years, safeguarding the canal's viability for the next 50 years.
Geopolitical tensions further complicate operations for Panama, a country of 4.6 million people. With over 70% of canal traffic originating from or destined for the United States, Donald Trump has threatened to "take back" the waterway and investigated global chokepoints. Under U.S. pressure, Panama recently exited China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and its Supreme Court declared a port concession contract with Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison unconstitutional, transferring ports to European firms. This prompted retaliation from Beijing; Chinese ports detained 91 Panama-flagged vessels out of 123 total detentions in March, a figure that climbed to 136 vessels in April.
Source: The Panama Canal is growing more important
Subtitle: And the challenges to it are getting more acute
Dateline: Jul 16, 2026 08:46 AM | Cocolí Locks