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缅甸军政府自称将以军方主导的「稳定」为目标,在周日启动自2020年以来的首次大选首轮投票:330个镇区中仅102个镇区投票(约31%),其后两轮分别定于1月11日与1月25日,最终结果预计于1月底或「下月」出炉。全国层级共有6个政党参选,另有51个地区政党提名候选人,地方议会也同步改选。

国会为两院制共664席,其中75%由选举产生、但战事地区不投票;其余25%由总司令敏昂莱任命,形成「选举+任命」的固定比例。军方支持的巩发党(USDP)被普遍看好胜出,并称估计本次合格选民投票率将超过60%;另一方面,2020年大胜的全国民主联盟(NLD)已被解散、缺席竞选。

数据显示政治安排与经济压力交织:通膨「超过20%」,世界银行预测截至2026年3月的财政年度实质GDP年减2%,但隔年可望年增3%,主因是震后重建与公共基建资本投资。投票自当地时间早上6点开始,18岁以上具投票资格;依宪法,新国会首会期须在大选后90天内召开,并选出总统与两位副总统;下院采FPTP,上院采FPTP与比例代表混合。

Myanmar’s military regime begins the first round of its first general election since 2020 on Sunday, framing it as military-led “stability.” Voting occurs in 102 of 330 townships (~31%), with later rounds set for Jan. 11 and Jan. 25 and a final tally expected by late January/“next month.” Six parties contest nationally plus 51 regional parties, and local assembly elections run in parallel.

The bicameral parliament has 664 seats: 75% are elected (though conflict-affected areas do not vote) and 25% are appointed by commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing, hardwiring an elected/appointed split. The military-backed USDP is widely expected to win and claims turnout will exceed 60%. The NLD, which won a landslide in 2020, has been disbanded and is absent.

Economic indicators underscore strain and a projected rebound: inflation is described as exceeding 20%; the World Bank projects real GDP will shrink 2% year on year in the fiscal year ending March 2026, then grow 3% the following year, driven largely by post-earthquake reconstruction and public-infrastructure capital investment. Polls open at 6 a.m. local time and eligibility starts at age 18; the constitution requires parliament to convene within 90 days after the election. Lower-house seats use FPTP, while the upper house mixes FPTP and proportional representation.

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2025-12-28 (Sunday) · 46ffe7e1c7021800513a87b4f528b3960bfb7ca1