文章称未来冲突将由低价、可快速量产且难防的无人机主导;下一次恐攻可能以蜂群方式出现,旋翼约每分钟 5,000 转,抵达前仅有数秒可察觉,且可在远离前线的距离打击目标。
文中以 2025 年 6 月为例:乌克兰以无人机在停机坪摧毁俄国约 10% 轰炸机;同月以色列自伊朗境内发动秘密无人机攻击;4 月胡塞以无人机与巡弋飞弹攻击尼米兹级航舰 USS Harry Truman,舰艇急转导致一架价值 5,600 万美元的 F-18 坠海。作者并断言 2026 年美国本土将出现针对军民目标的无人机攻击。
作者指出美军早在 2017 年即知商用低成本无人机威胁并建立 DIU 与 Blue UAS,但资源与采购节奏落后:2025 年国防部预算仅拨 3.5 亿美元给战术级 UAS,预计仅部署约 4,000 套,均价近 10 万美元;相较之下,乌克兰大型工厂可日产「数千」架、单价仅「数百」美元,前线月交付 20 万架 FPV,并计划把年产扩至 450 万架。虽有 2023 年 Replicator、2025 年 7 月加速指令、DIU 近 20 亿美元预算、陆军每战斗师 1,000 架目标,但新创仍仅占国防支出不到 1%,使未来一年以上的防护缺口更易被利用。
The piece argues future conflict will be shaped by cheap, rapidly manufactured drones that are hard to defend against. It warns the next terror attack could begin with rotors spinning around 5,000 rpm, audible only seconds before a swarm arrives, and that low-cost drones can be concealed, launched, and strike targets far from active battlefields.
It highlights 2025 examples: in June, Ukraine used drones to destroy about 10% of Russia’s bombers on the tarmac; Israel launched clandestine drones from inside Iran; and in April, Houthi drones and cruise missiles targeted the USS Harry Truman, whose evasive maneuver reportedly knocked a $56 million F-18 off the deck. The authors predict a drone attack inside the United States in 2026.
Despite awareness since 2017 (DIU, Rogue Squadron, Blue UAS), the US is portrayed as under-resourced: the 2025 DoD budget has $350M for tactical UAS, projecting ~4,000 systems at nearly $100,000 each. Ukraine can produce thousands of FPV drones per day for a few hundred dollars, deliver 200,000 per month, and aims for 4.5 million per year. Even with Replicator (2023), a July 2025 acceleration directive, DIU near $2B, and Army plans for 1,000 drones per combat division, startups remain under 1% of DoD spend, leaving a year-plus defensive gap.