若交易成形，将是矿业史上最大规模并购之一，并在「扩大铜布局」的收购热潮中诞生可与必和必拓（BHP）抗衡的新巨头。铜价本周曾升破每吨13,000美元创新高，受矿场停产与美国因可能关税而提前囤货影响，也加深了对未来供给偏紧、需求（含AI与国防支出）上行的预期。
关键障碍在于嘉能可的煤炭版图（力拓已退出煤业）与企业文化差异；嘉能可亦为全球最大煤炭海运商之一，且其股价曾受煤价疲弱拖累。历史上，两家公司在2024年因估值分歧中止谈判；嘉能可CEO近月提出未来十年铜产量「几乎翻倍」的计划，而前CEO格拉森伯格仍持股约10%。依英国收购规则，力拓须在2月5日前确认提出要约或退出并冷却六个月。
Rio Tinto and Glencore say they are in talks about combining some or all businesses, potentially via an all-share takeover, to create the world’s biggest miner with a combined market value above $200 billion—just over a year after earlier talks collapsed. After the announcement, Glencore’s ADRs rose 8.8% in New York while Rio shares fell as much as 6.6% in Sydney, reflecting limited disclosed detail.
If completed, it would be the mining industry’s largest-ever deal and the clearest path to a new giant to rival BHP, amid takeover fever focused on copper. Copper hit fresh records above $13,000 a ton this week, fueled by mine outages and US stockpiling ahead of possible tariffs, reinforcing expectations of tight future supply against rising demand tied to AI and defense spending.
The main hurdles are Glencore’s coal exposure (Rio previously exited coal) and cultural differences; Glencore is also the world’s biggest coal shipper and has faced pressure after weak coal prices. The companies dropped 2024 talks over valuation; Glencore’s CEO has outlined plans to almost double copper output over the next decade, while ex-CEO Ivan Glasenberg still owns about 10%. Under UK takeover rules, Rio must confirm an offer by Feb. 5 or step back for six months.
