东京威力科创（Tokyo Electron）押注 AI 资料中心带动的记忆体「长期超级循环」。去年秋季，基准现货 DRAM 价格较一年前约暴涨 10 倍，推升记忆体扩产动机；公司预期记忆体厂将自今年起加大采购晶片制造设备，以满足 AI 伺服器需求。

高频宽记忆体（HBM）投资快速升温：AI 晶片常搭载多颗 HBM，供给趋紧；SK 海力士与三星电子正以「数十亿美元」规模投资，预计 2027–2028 年左右启用新产能。东京威力科创看好蚀刻设备，因 HBM 堆叠层数增加、连接步骤变多，将放大蚀刻与互连相关制程设备需求。

公司目标在截至 2030 会计年度累计蚀刻系统销售达 5,000 亿日圆（约 32 亿美元）；同时加码投入：预估 2025 会计年度净利下降 10% 至 4,880 亿日圆，但研发费用将增 16% 至 2,900 亿日圆、资本支出增 48% 至 2,400 亿日圆，皆为新高。以「过去五年营业利益 ÷ 前五年研发费」计，东京威力科创为 5.5 倍，高于 Lam Research 的 4.5 倍与 Applied Materials 的 4 倍；然蚀刻市占过去十年 Lam 约 40%–50%，东京威力科创约 20%–30%。2025 年股价上涨 42%，落后于 Lam 的翻倍以上与应材的 58%；预估本益比 29 亦低于 Lam 的 38。

Tokyo Electron is positioning for an AI-driven memory “supercycle.” Benchmark spot DRAM prices surged roughly 10× year on year last fall, a signal the company expects to translate into higher memory output and equipment purchases as AI data-center demand expands.

High-bandwidth memory (HBM) is a key driver: AI chips often bundle multiple HBM stacks, tightening supply. SK Hynix and Samsung are investing billions of dollars in new facilities scheduled to start up around 2027–2028. Tokyo Electron expects this to boost demand for etching tools as stacked-layer counts rise and interconnection steps increase.

Tokyo Electron targets ¥500 billion (~$3.2B) in cumulative sales of DRAM interconnection etching systems by fiscal 2030. For fiscal 2025 it forecasts net profit down 10% to ¥488B, while R&D rises 16% to ¥290B and capex jumps 48% to ¥240B (both records). A profitability proxy puts its profits at 5.5× prior R&D spend vs Lam’s 4.5× and Applied’s 4×, but Lam still holds ~40%–50% etch share vs Tokyo Electron’s ~20%–30%. In 2025 the stock gained 42% (vs Lam >100% and Applied +58%), and its forward P/E of 29 trails Lam’s 38.