逆差缩小主要来自进口大幅回落，尤其是药品与非货币性黄金。药品制剂进口降至2022年7月以来最低，先前企业在9月提前进口，部分因市场预期10月1日起可能对药品进口课征100%关税但后来延后；一些企业以降价承诺换取避免课税。关税政策反复使贸易月度波动加剧；油、金属等工业用品进口也下滑，但电脑与配件进口回升，反映AI投资带来的需求。
贸易波动亦影响GDP衡量。亚特兰大联储GDPNow估计净出口对第四季增长的贡献接近+2个百分点，第四季增速估计为5.4%。黄金（非工业用途）不纳入GDP计算；以通膨调整后，10月商品贸易逆差为630亿美元，为2020年2月以来最小。双边方面，对爱尔兰逆差明显收窄；对墨西哥与中国扩大、对加拿大收窄、对台湾扩大。加拿大对美出口占比降至67.3%，若排除疫情，是1997年以来最低。
The US goods-and-services trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in October, dropping 39% from the prior month to $29.4 billion, the smallest since 2009. Imports fell 3.2% while exports rose 2.6%, and the figures are not adjusted for inflation. The report was released more than a month late because of the federal government shutdown.
The pullback in imports was driven by pharmaceuticals and nonmonetary gold. Imports of pharmaceutical preparations fell to the lowest level since July 2022 after firms frontloaded drug shipments in September amid expectations of a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical imports starting Oct. 1 that was later delayed; some companies avoided duties via pricing deals. Tariff-related volatility has also swung gold and other industrial supplies, while imports of computers and accessories picked up amid AI buildout demand.
Trade swings are feeding into growth tracking: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimated net exports would add nearly 2 percentage points to fourth-quarter growth, lifting its Q4 growth estimate to 5.4%. Gold trade (unless for industrial use) is excluded from GDP; on an inflation-adjusted basis, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $63 billion, the smallest since Feb. 2020. Bilaterally, the deficit with Ireland narrowed, gaps with Mexico and China widened, Canada’s narrowed, and Taiwan’s widened; Canada’s US-bound export share fell to 67.3%, the lowest since 1997 excluding the pandemic.
