2026年达沃斯（Davos）的官方主题是“A Spirit of Dialogue”，但会场回响的是两场演讲与一个分裂现实：加拿大新任总理Mark Carney与美国总统Donald Trump对同一秩序给出两种诊断。Carney以“我们正处在一场断裂之中，而非一个过渡期”定调，指向西方在“Trumpism”压力下对自身国际秩序叙事的再评估。Trump以“前所未有的增长奇迹”自述，并以最后通牒式措辞要求盟友在“感激”与“被记住”之间选择，强调权力与从属。

两人的共同点不是左翼立场，而是现实主义取向下的相反处方。Trump主张国际秩序从来不平等且不应平等，理由是美国提供安全公共品；因此质疑NATO“对美国不公平”、WTO规则“不对称”，偏好关税、双边谈判与“America First”。他把Greenland定义为美国“核心国家安全利益”，要求“立即”谈判收购，并指责Denmark“忘恩负义”；他也强调“加拿大因为美国而存在”。他还用血缘比例建构亲近叙事：“母亲100% Scottish，父亲100% German”。Carney则承认“基于规则的国际秩序”叙事部分虚假：最强者会在需要时豁免自身，但这种虚构曾因美国霸权提供公共品而“有用”，只是“交易已不再奏效”；他引用Václav Havel强调规则本身的价值，并提出“集体韧性投资”与中等强国联合开辟“第三条道路”。

文章把冲突放回保守主义与自由主义的历史结构：1790年Edmund Burke在《Reflections on the Revolution in France》中奠基现代保守主义，给出三重承诺——秩序、传统、审慎；二战后自由主义与保守主义在共同敌人Soviet Union之下协作，而1991年冷战结束后对立面消失，美国与其他西方国家的矛盾上升，并在2008年金融危机与COVID-19后加速。Adam Tooze倡议“progressive realism”，并追溯Carney在2019年的历史教训：1920s的gold exchange standard是现代经济史上仅发生过一次的全球货币体制转变，过渡期的双锚尝试被描述为灾难并间接引发Great Depression；Carney据此偏向更均衡的多极与稀释霸权，Trump式解读则倾向“当年问题在于美国未充分行使霸权”，从而把“保守”定义为维护美国强大、必要时打破规则。作者以20世纪1950s–1960s汉学家John King Fairbank提出的“impact-response”模式类比，指出在约200年尺度上外部冲击促成中国现代化；而如今身份危机转移到“美国之外的西方”，结论是熟悉的“西方”已不可逆地结束。

The 2026 Davos theme is “A Spirit of Dialogue,” yet the hall amplifies two speeches and one fracture: Canada’s new prime minister Mark Carney and U.S. president Donald Trump diagnose the same order in two incompatible ways. Carney opens bluntly that “we are in a rupture, not a transition,” framing a Western reappraisal of the international-order story under the pressure of “Trumpism.” Trump claims an “unprecedented growth miracle” and issues ultimatum-like language to allies, casting the relationship as gratitude versus being remembered, i.e., power versus dependence.

Their overlap is not leftism but realism with opposite prescriptions. Trump argues the international order has never been equal and should not be, because the United States supplies security public goods; he therefore doubts liberal rules and institutions, calling NATO “unfair to America” and WTO rules “asymmetric,” and prefers tariffs, bilateral bargaining, and “America First.” He labels Greenland a “core national security interest,” demands “immediate” talks to buy it, and accuses Denmark of ingratitude; he also says “Canada exists because of the United States.” He reinforces civilizational proximity with blood-percentage rhetoric: “mother 100% Scottish, father 100% German.” Carney, by contrast, concedes that the “rules-based international order” narrative is partly false—the strongest exempt themselves when needed—yet says the fiction was useful because U.S. hegemony provided public goods, but “the bargain no longer works.” He cites Václav Havel to defend the value of rules, calls for “collective resilience investment,” and urges middle powers to unite around a “third way.”

The article relocates the clash inside the long structure of conservatism and liberalism. In 1790 Edmund Burke’s Reflections on the Revolution in France anchors modern conservatism with three promises—order, tradition, prudence; after World War II, liberalism and conservatism cooperated against a shared enemy, the Soviet Union, but after the Cold War ended in 1991 the opposite pole faded, U.S.–Western partner frictions rose, and the process sharpened after the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19. Adam Tooze argues for “progressive realism” and traces Carney to a 2019 lesson: the 1920s gold exchange standard was the only global monetary-regime transition in modern economic history, and its dual-anchor experiment is portrayed as disastrous and indirectly leading to the Great Depression. Carney’s inference is a more balanced multipolarity that dilutes hegemony; the Trump-side inference is that the failure was America’s insufficient use of hegemony, so “conserving” means preserving U.S. strength even by breaking rules. Using sinologist John King Fairbank’s 1950s–1960s “impact-response” model, the author analogizes roughly 200 years of China’s modernization under external shocks to a new identity crisis in the West beyond America, concluding that the familiar “West” is already gone.