特朗普表示他正在与伊朗领导人讨论结束空袭，伊朗则说他并非如此，但美国已调动两支海军陆战队两栖部队，一支来自日本、一支来自加州，随后还有一支擅长空降突击的精锐部队准备跟进，显示其在为若谈判失败而以武力打通霍尔木兹海峡做准备。自“空前狂怒”行动开始以来，伊朗已威胁约占全球石油和液化天然气出口约20%的航运，至少19艘商船在海湾内外受袭，流量已降至几乎只剩与伊朗有关船只的细流，商品与金融市场因此震荡。

五角大楼据称拟采取三阶段方案：第一阶段主要依靠空中力量（并可能加入地面部队）清除威胁海峡航运的目标，包括快艇、导弹、无人机和水雷；第二阶段清扫海峡水雷；第三阶段在伊朗对商船攻击能力被削弱后开始护航油轮。每阶段可能持续数周，风险很高；尽管美军已对地下导弹库投放5000磅炸弹，且称已毁伤或击沉逾120艘伊朗海军舰艇和44艘布雷船，但这些设施分散在数百公里海岸线、洞穴和隧道中，仍难以全部清除。

策划方还在考虑在周边岛屿部署特种部队或海军陆战队以侦察和摧毁隐蔽目标，并可能夺取赫尔格油田终端或海峡内三处伊朗控制但阿联酋宣称主权的岛屿；但人员将处于伊朗火炮与无人机射程内且需持续补给。伊朗战前估计有约6000枚水雷，2026年1月美国海军刚退役在该区域最后一艘Avenger级扫雷舰，替代的三艘近岸作战舰中有两艘不在海湾且新设备未验于实战，这使扫雷预计需要1—3周，之后仍可能在风险未完全消除情况下开航。

Donald Trump says he is talking with Iran’s leaders about ending his bombing campaign while Iran denies it, but two U.S. Marine amphibious units—one from Japan and one from California—are already moving to the Gulf, with an elite parachute brigade reportedly close behind, signaling a contingency to force open the Strait of Hormuz if negotiations fail. Since Operation Epic Fury began, Iran has threatened shipping tied to roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied-gas exports, at least 19 commercial ships have been hit inside and just outside the strait, and traffic has slowed to a trickle mostly linked to Iran, a disruption that has jolted commodity and financial markets.

The Pentagon is reportedly pursuing a three-phase sequence: first, air-led (possibly with ground troops) hunting of Iranian assets in the strait such as speedboats, missiles, drones and mines; second, mine-sweeping; and third, tanker escorts once Iran’s predation on shipping is reduced. Each stage may run for weeks under heavy risk, and although U.S. strikes include 5,000-pound bombs on underground missile bunkers and claims of more than 120 Iranian naval ships and 44 mine-layers damaged or sunk, the dispersed coastal, cave, and tunnel network keeps complete elimination unlikely.

Planners are also weighing island deployments to identify and destroy hidden threats, including options like seizing Kharg Island or three UAE-claimed islands near the strait, though troops there would be exposed to drones and artillery and require ongoing resupply. Iran is estimated to have had about 6,000 mines before the war, and the U.S. had scrapped its last Avenger-class mine hunter in January; with two of three replacement littoral combat ships still en route from Asia and systems untested in combat, clearing is seen as a one-to-three-week job only if forced, while escorting tankers would demand heavy air and destroyer support—yet only 14 destroyers are in the region and six are tied up with carriers.

Source: What a battle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would look like

Subtitle: A lot of ships, aircraft and soldiers would have to spend a long time in harm’s way for uncertain results

Dateline: 3月 26, 2026 04:45 上午