中国上月脱离通缩的明显逆转是受欢迎的发展，因为生产者物价指数(PPI)同比上涨2.8%，是自2022年7月以来最快，且高于彭博经济学家调查的中位数1.8%；消费者物价指数(CPI)也意外上涨到1.2%。Union Bancaire Privee香港分行资深亚太经济学家Carlos Casanova称，中国已正式走出通缩。

中国自2022年下半年起一直陷入通缩螺旋，因制造业产能过剩和国内需求疲软引发激烈的价格战。上月工业通胀上升的主因包括有色金属采矿与加工程度提升，以及原油价格走高。

中东战事造成的经济损失预计将成为Donald Trump与Xi Jinping本周会谈的核心议题。美方官员称Trump预计向Xi施压，关注北京对Iran的立场；中国虽加入国际压力停火，但向Iran提供收入及可能的武器出口都可能被讨论。Trump与Iran已经都拒绝最近的最新和平方案，停火仍然脆弱。美国财政部长Scott Bessent将在首尔与中国财政部长He Lifeng进行最后一刻接触，作为特朗普十年来首次访中行程的前置会谈。

China’s sharp move away from deflation last month is a welcome development, with producer prices (PPI) rising 2.8% year on year—the fastest since July 2022 and above the Bloomberg economists’ median forecast of 1.8%—while consumer inflation unexpectedly climbed to 1.2%. Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at Union Bancaire Privee in Hong Kong, said China has officially exited deflation.

China had been in a deflationary spiral since late 2022 as excess manufacturing capacity and weak domestic demand triggered fierce price wars, and the latest factory inflation jump was driven by higher prices in non-ferrous metal mining and processing and crude oil.

The economic damage from the Middle East war is expected to dominate the Trump–Xi talks this week. US officials said Trump is likely to press Xi on China’s Iran policy, while China may still be weighed between global pressure to end the war and its revenue links with Iran plus possible weapons exports. Trump and Iran have both rejected their latest peace proposals, and the ceasefire remains fragile. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, will meet He Lifeng in Seoul in last-minute talks ahead of the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly a decade.