整体入境需求仍强：11月总入境352万人次，年增10.4%；2025年前11个月累计已逾3900万人次，提前超越去年创下的全年纪录3687万人次。但赴日取消行程已波及饭店、民宿与巴士团，并扩散至百货等零售端；三越伊势丹控股股价约较9月年内高点低20%。
结构性依赖亦在下降：日方统计显示，1至9月中国旅客仅占日本外国旅客过夜人次的21.7%，低于2019年全年29.5%。上周东岸外海地震引发海啸警报但未造成重大损害，中方仍重申避免赴日；日本表示将密切观察对观光产业的影响并维持沟通。
In November 2025, Japan received 562,600 Chinese visitors, up just 3% year on year, far below the 40.7% cumulative growth from January to October. After Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Nov. 7 that an attack on Taiwan could be a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, China urged citizens on Nov. 14 to refrain from traveling to Japan; agencies halted Japan tour sales, airlines offered free cancellations, and flights saw cuts and suspensions.
Overall inbound demand stayed strong: total arrivals in November were 3.52 million, up 10.4% year on year; for the first 11 months of 2025, arrivals exceeded 39 million, already surpassing last year’s annual record of 36.87 million. Even so, cancellations hit hotels, private lodging operators, and bus tour firms, and concerns spread to retailers; Isetan Mitsukoshi’s share price hovered about 20% below its September yearly high.
Japan’s reliance on Chinese tourists is also easing: Chinese visitors accounted for 21.7% of foreign overnight guests from January to September, down from 29.5% for full-year 2019. After an offshore earthquake triggered a tsunami warning with no significant damage, China reiterated its travel restraint, while Japan said it will monitor tourism impacts and keep communication open.
