在日本最北端的北海道岛上，相距不到40公里的南幌町（Nanporo）与夕张市（Yubari）在人口萎缩时代展现出截然不同的命运：位于首府札幌以东的宁静通勤小镇南幌町是日本本土人口增长最快的地区之一，而2007年破产的前煤炭中心夕张市的人口则较峰值锐减了95%。南幌町的人口曾从1998年的约1万人降至四分之一个世纪后的不足7400人，但在去年已回升至8400人；在2020至2025年日本全国人口减少约300万的背景下，南幌町是北海道179个市町村中仅有的9个人口增长地区之一，更是其中唯一不依赖大规模外国移民实现增长的城镇。

南幌町的成功得益于距离札幌不到一小时车程的区位优势以及持续独特的家庭激励政策：夫妻双方均在40岁以下或育有初中及以下学龄儿童的家庭，建房最高可获得200万日元（1.25万美元）补贴，北海道土地银行持有的闲置地块也以大幅折扣出售，父母每年还能领到10公斤大米。这吸引了像立木（Tatsuki）一家这样的年轻家庭去年迁入并在自建房一楼开设生意兴隆的咖啡馆，甚至带动其姐姐也决定搬来。然而，南幌町的增长源于人口迁入而非婴儿潮——去年该镇死亡人数仍是出生人数的两倍——在全国人口萎缩的零和竞争下，一个城镇的所得正是另一个城镇的所失。

相比之下，人口在1960年达到约11.7万峰值的夕张市在1990年最后一座煤矿关闭后转型旅游业失败并最终破产；在国家接管的重组计划下，当局关闭学校、停运公交和闭馆博物馆的削减服务之举反而加速了衰退。自2022年以来，夕张市人口从约7000人进一步缩减至仅5600人，剩余居民中超过一半在65岁以上，不仅无人迁入，企业也纷纷歇业。由商界和公民领袖组成的“人口战略会议”在2024年报告称，由于年轻人外流，日本约40%的市町村面临消失风险；夕张市市长厚谷司指出，对于无法复制南幌町区位优势的小城镇而言，当务之急是通过发展更紧凑、联系更紧密的社区来妥善管理不可避免的衰退，增长已不再是衡量成功的唯一标准。

Situated less than 40km apart on Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido, the municipalities of Nanporo and Yubari illustrate diverging paths in an era of demographic shrinkage: Nanporo, a commuter town east of Sapporo, is growing its native population at one of Japan’s fastest rates, whereas Yubari, a former coal-mining hub that went bankrupt in 2007, has lost 95% of its peak population. After falling from roughly 10,000 residents in 1998 to under 7,400 over the following quarter-century, Nanporo’s population rebounded to 8,400 last year; as Japan as a whole lost some 3m people between 2020 and 2025, Nanporo was one of just nine out of 179 Hokkaido municipalities to grow, and the only one to do so without substantial foreign immigration.

Nanporo’s turnaround stems from combining rural spaciousness less than an hour’s drive from Sapporo with sustained incentives for young families: couples under 40 or with children of middle-school age or younger receive up to ¥2m ($12,500) towards home construction, steep discounts on unused plots from a prefectural land bank, and 10kg of rice annually. These perks drew newcomers like the Tatsuki family, who moved to Nanporo last year to build a home and ground-floor café and inspired Mr Tatsuki’s older sister to follow. Yet because Nanporo still recorded twice as many deaths as births last year, its growth relies on domestic migration within a zero-sum national demographic decline.

Conversely, Yubari—whose population peaked at around 117,000 in 1960 before its last coal mine closed in 1990—went bankrupt after a failed pivot to tourism, and state-mandated austerity that shuttered schools, bus routes, and the local museum only accelerated its decline. Since 2022, Yubari’s population has fallen from roughly 7,000 to 5,600, with over half of remaining residents aged over 65 and businesses closing down. With the Population Strategy Council reporting in 2024 that some 40% of Japanese municipalities risk disappearing due to youth outflows, Yubari Mayor Atsuya Tsukasa notes that towns lacking Nanporo’s proximity to a regional hub must instead manage inevitable shrinkage by becoming more compact and connected rather than measuring success solely by growth.

Source: Two Japanese towns offer lessons for shrinking countries

Subtitle: Only some places can hope to grow; others must learn to manage decline

Dateline: Oct 15th 2026\n