国际清算银行(BIS)发出警告,目前人工智慧基础设施的建设竞赛正走向超越过往科技热潮的规模,最终可能导致严重的市场动荡。该机构指出,若AI带来的生产力提升无法合理化其庞大的投资金额,将会增加引发更广泛金融危机的风险。
许多科技公司为了抢占未来的成长机会,正大量投资于AI基础设施,并透过发行债券及更复杂的融资安排来筹措资金。某些情况下更出现了循环融资现象,例如云端基础设施业者借由入股AI开发商,来换取对方承诺购买其运算能力,这种复杂且高杠杆的财务结构加剧了金融脆弱性。
BIS的报告也将此次AI投资热潮与1830年代的美国运河热、1840年代的英国铁路热以及1990年代末期的网路泡沫相提并论。在这种「赢者全拿」的市场动态下,过度投资变得越来越脆弱,一旦泡沫破裂,其破坏力将比以往任何一次科技泡沫都来得更大且更为迅速。
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that the ongoing race to build artificial intelligence infrastructure is on track to surpass previous technological booms and could result in severe market disruptions. The institution noted that if productivity gains fail to justify the massive investments, the risk of broader financial turmoil will significantly increase.
Tech companies are investing heavily in AI infrastructure to capture future growth, funding this expansion through bond issuance and complex financing arrangements. In some cases, circular financing has emerged, where cloud infrastructure builders take equity stakes in AI developers in exchange for commitments to purchase computing capacity, a structure that exacerbates financial vulnerabilities.
The BIS report compares the current AI investment boom to past cycles such as the US canal mania of the 1830s, the British railway mania of the 1840s, and the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. In this winner-takes-most market dynamic, excessive investment makes the boom increasingly fragile, and any resulting bust could be even more damaging and rapid than previous tech bubbles.