本文以一个思想实验开场：若英国脱欧后对每日通过英吉利海峡的600艘船只征收通行费，作为类比当前伊朗与美国的关键交会点。文中指出，英吉利海峡略窄于霍尔木兹海峡，但其通行流量更高，且假设中的白崖导弹、布雷与拦截巡逻凸显一个核心：若以武力取代法治，将面临全球抵抗。作者要对照的是，当初脱欧旨在摆脱欧盟官僚化而非抛弃国际法。
在霍尔木兹问题上，伊朗已从高姿态转向定价行为：公开两条核可的安全航道，并传达将对载油油轮收取费用。这被视为对过去不切实际要求美国战争赔偿的一种替代。Christopher Granville（TS Lombard）认为，对载油船收费几乎成定局，但把权利写入和平条款可能仍受阻；然而可透过以安全服务名义包装减少反对。Donald Trump 也问「为什么我们不能收费」，而在交通尚未全面恢复的情况下，美股仍连续上涨七个交易日，为六个月以来最长连涨。
历史上，丹麦海峡在17世纪的“Sound Toll”最高可占国库收入2/3，最终在1857年《哥本哈根公约》下，丹麦放弃了拦截与课税，改为一次性补偿。今日可见其经验：窄航道可透过规则管理。文中引用丹麦每年为约10,000艘船提供领航服务，其中最窄段约4英里（6.4公里）。基于此，文章认为伊朗可能透过低冲突方式收费，但不必然可压低油价下压风险。
The piece opens with a thought experiment: Britain, after Brexit, charging a toll on all 600 ships crossing the English Channel each day, as an analogy for the current Iran-U.S. juncture. It notes that the Channel is slightly narrower than the Strait of Hormuz but carries heavier traffic, and the imagined deployment of missile launchers, mines, and interception patrols shows that replacing law with force would meet global resistance. The contrast is that Brexit was framed as escaping EU bureaucracy, not rejecting international law.
On Hormuz, Iran is moving from posture to pricing: it published two approved safe routes and signaled that tankers carrying loads will pay fees. This is effectively a replacement for earlier unrealistic demands for U.S. war reparations. Christopher Granville of TS Lombard says tankers are likely to be charged, though embedding such control in peace terms may still face pushback, and fees may be justified as security services. Donald Trump has even asked, in effect, why the U.S. should not charge, while U.S. equities rose for seven consecutive days—the longest streak in six months—even as throughput had not fully resumed.
Historically, Denmark’s 17th-century Sound Toll once amounted to as much as two-thirds of state revenue, yet by the 1857 Convention of Copenhagen it traded tolling rights for one-time compensation while retaining sovereignty in narrower legal ways. The argument is that chokepoints can be managed by rules, not outright closure; Denmark now pilots about 10,000 ships a year, with a narrow point of only four miles (6.4 km). The implied lesson is that Iran may seek low-friction fee models without necessarily matching Suez or Panama-level tolls, but price-taking markets still test whether restricted Hormuz transit is acceptable if oil-field damage and output loss remain contained.