越南共产党每五年一次的大会并非只是走过场；最新一届党代会将于1月19日开幕，河内在军方派系与警方派系争夺未来五年高层人事的传闻中气氛紧张。党魁苏林称接下来五年由谁执政“已定”，但熟悉内情的分析人士认为仍有很多未定。

矛盾的燃料来自苏林的改革攻势：他在2024年8月接任总书记后追求两位数经济增长（自1990年代以来越南从未接近），并向少数私营财团注资以建设价值数十亿美元的新基建。他还将省份数量从63个削减到34个、关闭4个政府部委，并首次规定各省党委书记必须由外地空降；数以万计官员失业，而一项将500万户家庭经营纳入税制的改革因反弹被撤回。

军方因拥有独立纪律体系而躲过苏林先前的反腐清洗，并正利用宣传系统含蓄批评改革、推动增加其在政治局与中央委员会的席位。以国防部长潘文江为首的军方派系在去年末一度把他塑造成接班人；他不太可能取代苏林的总书记职位，但若出任总统将足以牵制部分改革，而苏林据称想兼任两项头衔。

Vietnam’s once-every-five-years party congress is not just for show; the latest begins on January 19 amid Hanoi tension and rumors of a struggle between army- and police-aligned factions over top appointments for the next five years. Party leader To Lam says who will run Vietnam is settled, but informed analysts think much remains undecided.

The dispute is fueled by Lam’s reform drive: after becoming general secretary in August 2024, he has pushed for double-digit growth (unseen since the 1990s) and funneled money to a small number of private conglomerates to build billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure. He has also cut provinces from 63 to 34, shut four ministries, and for the first time required each province’s party chief to be an outsider; tens of thousands of bureaucrats have lost jobs, and a reform to bring 5m household businesses into the tax system was withdrawn after backlash.

The army, protected by its own disciplinary system, avoided Lam’s earlier anti-corruption purges and is using the propaganda apparatus to criticize reforms obliquely while seeking more seats in the politburo and central committee. Led by Defense Minister Phan Van Giang, it floated him as a successor late last year; he is unlikely to oust Lam as general secretary, but a bid for the presidency could check some changes, even as Lam reportedly wants both titles.

Source: Will the army hold up Vietnam’s big reforms?

Subtitle: Two visions for the country will collide at a five-yearly congress

Dateline: 1月 15, 2026 05:53 上午