《经济学人》新的预测模型认为，由于唐纳德·特朗普支持率低，11月中期选举中共和党将遭遇惨败：民主党几乎可以确定赢得众议院，并可能连参议院也反超，尽管本轮选区版图明显偏向共和党。尽管这将是显著的选举胜利，但文章将其解读为美国民主制度的问题，而不是单纯的党派赢输。

这篇文章认为风险不只是结果是否不公，更在于败者是否仍接受制度的合法性：在反复干预选举运作、重复宣称2020年“被偷走”、激化的选区划分，以及通过行政令将部分选举管理从州移交联邦的尝试之后，公众对程序的信任已被明显侵蚀。参议院竞争接近使特朗普更有动机和空间去干预或提起诉讼，即便最终败诉，反复起诉也会延长疑虑，尤其在盟友提出在关键州骚扰少数族裔选民等方案时。

关键统计数据十分刺痛人心：只有25%选民认为中期选举不会受到干预，两党支持者中多数认为对方过于极端，只有10%的人认为两党都诚实守法；超过一半美国人认为同胞道德败坏，而英国仅17%、加拿大仅7%。美国人民对选举的信任在布什诉戈尔案后下降，并在特朗普时期进一步恶化，令美国在250周年之际更像一则民主脆弱性的警示案例。

The Economist’s new forecasting model says Trump’s unpopularity makes a Republican midterm rout likely: Democrats are almost certain to win the House and could even capture the Senate, even though the current map strongly favours Republicans. This is treated as a major electoral result but, in the analysis, a warning sign for U.S. democracy rather than a routine party victory.

The article argues the risk is not only whether outcomes are rigged, but whether losers will accept the legitimacy of results: repeated interference, repeated false 2020-steal claims, aggressive gerrymandering, and attempts to shift election authority from states to the federal level have already strained trust. A close Senate race gives Trump strong incentives and opportunity to meddle or litigate, and even failed lawsuits can sustain doubt—especially alongside proposals to target minority voters in key states.

The numbers are stark: only 25% of voters say they are confident the midterms will be free from interference, a majority in both parties think the other side is too extreme, and only 10% say both parties are honest and ethical; more than half of Americans think fellow citizens are morally bad, versus 17% of Britons and 7% of Canadians. Public trust in elections fell after Bush v. Gore and deteriorated further under Trump, making the U.S. a cautionary case of fragile democracy as it marks its 250th birthday.

Source: America is vulnerable to electoral vandalism

Subtitle: Too many no longer believe elections are fair

Dateline: 4月 23, 2026 04:55 上午