在过去的一个世纪，尤其是在智能手机时代，苹果象征了时代精神：从 iPhone 带来的应用经济到先在中国制造后在中国销售的全球化模式。蒂姆·库克执掌 15 年后，在继承乔布斯愿景的基础上实现了规模化扩张：约15亿人将 iPhone 放入口袋，苹果市值增长了11倍，并通过股价和分红给股东累计创造了约4.6万亿美元收益，折合其任期内平均每天约8500万美元。
其核心策略是“双重押注”：智能手机作为人与数字世界的主要接口，以及基于全球供应链的生产网络。尽管在 iPhone 之后没有再推出同等变革性的产品（AirPods、手表是配套品类，Vision Pro 约3500美元且影响有限，iCar 方案被搁置），但通过扩展机型和市场，苹果在15年中凭“智能手机+全球供应链”累计获得约1万亿美元净利润。
全球化进一步强化了这一模型：跨国货物和服务贸易额从1990年代约占世界GDP的40%上升到近60%，而中国的全球经济占比从2011年的10%升至17%，苹果门店也从4家增至50家。新任CEO约翰·特纳斯将面对AI与地缘政治考验；若AI模型盈利并不优于AI应用与硬件，且贸易格局只是重构未断裂，旧公式或可延续，但若美国与中国关系失衡，苹果仍可能失去其“在中国制造并在中国销售”的基础。
For much of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, and especially in the smartphone era, Apple represented the era’s spirit, from the app economy sparked by the iPhone to globalization through making in China first and then selling there. Over 15 years, Tim Cook delivered scale: about 1.5bn people now carry an iPhone, Apple’s market value rose 11-fold, and total shareholder returns including dividends reached roughly $4.6trn, about $850m per day.
The core strategy was a dual bet on the smartphone as the main interface and on global supply chains, and that approach produced scale in profits. No post-iPhone launch matched its impact—AirPods and watches were accessories, Vision Pro at about $3,500 remained niche, and the iCar plan was dropped—yet expansion of phone families and markets generated about $1trn cumulative net profit over 15 years.
Globalization strengthened that model: cross-border trade in goods and services rose to nearly 60% of world GDP from about 40% in the 1990s, while China’s share of the global economy moved from 10% in 2011 to 17%, and Apple stores grew from 4 to 50. Successor John Ternus faces an AI and geopolitical test, where the formula works only if AI applications and devices out-earn model-building and supply chains are rerouted rather than broken, while Apple still hovers near a $4.2trn peak and avoids a potentially huge $3trn data-center binge by continuing the “Designed by Apple in California, Assembled in China/India” model.
Source: Tim Cook wrote a winning recipe for Apple
Subtitle: Will it work for his successor?
Dateline: 4月 23, 2026 04:55 上午