世界正在重武备：过去十年军事支出按实际口径每年都在增长，且2024年的增幅是自冷战以来通胀调整后最大的跃升。欧洲北约成员预计到本十年末将每年再增花费3000亿欧元（3530亿美元），中国每年增加的军费相当于台湾全年国防预算总额，美国在仅40天战争中就耗尽了其高端防空弹药的一半，这表明可持续补充能力比以往更重要。
乌克兰和伊朗的战争不同，但它们有共同教训：乌克兰依赖每周更新软件的低成本无人机来抵抗规模更大的俄军，而以色列和美国则对伊朗使用了昂贵的F-35、B-2轰炸机、空射弹道导弹和大量加油机。两者都显示军队需要少量高端体系加大量廉价可替换武器，并且作战效能如今更多取决于嵌入式软件、数据、算法和更新频率，而不是平台规模或价格。
这就是美国国防制造业正在重塑的原因：Palantir目前市值已超过RTX（前身为雷神），并与SpaceX、Anduril形成以软件为先的“新军工”三人组，与传统制造商竞争。欧洲明显落后，因为德国把1000亿欧元特别国防基金中的大部分导向传统装备，英国对“新型”技术仅分配10%，并有人争议应把停产20年的F-35也算进去；文本已更正，先前错误地称Destinus为乌克兰企业，实际上它是荷兰公司，它与莱茵金属、乌克兰合作研发更廉价的远程导弹并共享战场数据训练人工智能，这是欧洲减少对少数美国公司的依赖所需的规模扩张方向。
The world is rearming: military spending has increased in real terms every year for the past decade, and 2024 saw the largest inflation-adjusted jump since the Cold War. European NATO members are set to add €300 billion ($353 billion) in annual spending by the decade’s end, China adds each year an amount equivalent to Taiwan’s full defense budget, and the United States used up half of its high-end air-defense munitions in just 40 days of war, signaling stronger demand for replenishment capacity.
The Ukraine and Iran wars are different, but they share lessons: Ukraine relied on low-cost drones with software updated weekly to resist a larger Russian force, while Israel and the United States used expensive F-35s, B-2 bombers, air-launched ballistic missiles, and many refueling aircraft against Iran. Both indicate armed forces need few high-end systems plus many cheap, replaceable weapons, and effectiveness now depends more on embedded software, data, algorithms, and update pace than on platform size or price.
This explains why U.S. defense manufacturing is being remade: Palantir is now valued above RTX (formerly Raytheon) and with SpaceX and Anduril forms a software-first “neo-prime” trio competing with legacy makers. Europe is lagging because Germany is directing most of its €100 billion special defense fund toward traditional kit, Britain allocates only 10% to “novel” technologies and even argued an out-of-production F-35 from 20 years ago should count; a correction clarifies Destinus is Dutch, not Ukrainian, and its cheap long-range missile and AI data-sharing work with Rheinmetall and Ukraine points to the scale Europe needs to reduce dependence on a few U.S. firms.
Source: How to bolster the arsenal of democracy
Subtitle: America’s new defence-tech industry should be a model for Europe
Dateline: 4月 23, 2026 04:56 上午