中国的出口在美国关税剧烈波动后仍然具有韧性，2026年前三个月按美元计同比增长26%，并且同一期间与2025年相比也高出14.7%。在美国对华关税一度升至145%后又在美国最高法院裁决后回落到10%，中国在2025年以1.2万亿美元实现创纪录贸易顺差，出口总额达3.8万亿美元，需求基础也已扩展到西班牙、罗马尼亚和东南亚客户。
中国的结构性转变更为关键：美国在中国出口中的占比由2014年的17%降至十年后的14.7%，而平均出口复杂度由0.29升至0.36，美国则从0.06降至-0.15。2025年对美出口减少超过1000亿美元，较2024年下滑约20%，但对其他国家出口却增长约3000亿美元；其中只有约330亿美元（约11%）可能经由第三国转运，越南则同时出现对华进口增加36亿美元、对美出口增加57亿美元的同期跳升。
2025年中间品和资本货物出口增长10.2%，而总体出口增长为5.5%，消费品出口则下降4.6%，且2026年1至3月内存储芯片出口达460亿美元，同比上升174%，成为最大出口品类。尽管人民币12个月内升值约6%，但中国实际汇率自2022年以来仍约贬值15%，且工厂出厂价格连续41个月下跌，因此价格竞争力仍强；但压力并未消失，欧盟顺差达到2910亿美元（较2020年增长120%），海湾地区3月对华出口同比降52%（其在2025年出口中仅占3.8%），而国内需求偏弱在支撑出口廉价化的同时，也使净出口对上一年5%增长贡献了1.6个百分点。
China’s exports remained resilient after sharp U.S. tariff shocks, rising 26% year over year in dollar terms in the first three months of 2026 and still up 14.7% versus the same period in 2025. After U.S. tariffs on China temporarily surged to 145% and were then reduced to 10% following the Supreme Court ruling, China ended 2025 with a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus and $3.8 trillion in exports, while customer demand spread to buyers in Spain, Romania, and Southeast Asia.
The structural shift is more important: the U.S. share of Chinese exports fell from 17% in 2014 to 14.7% a decade later, while export complexity rose from 0.29 to 0.36 and the U.S. measure moved from 0.06 to -0.15. Exports to the U.S. fell by more than $100 billion in 2025, about a 20% drop from 2024, while exports to other countries rose around $300 billion; only about $33 billion, or 11%, appears to have been routed through third countries, with Vietnam showing both a $36 billion increase in imports from China and a $57 billion increase in exports to the U.S.
In 2025, intermediate and capital goods grew 10.2% versus 5.5% total export growth, while consumption goods declined 4.6%, and memory-chip exports in January to March reached $46 billion, up 174%, becoming the largest export item. Price competitiveness held despite about 6% yuan appreciation because China’s real exchange rate remains about 15% weaker than early 2022 and factory-gate prices fell for 41 months, but external pressure persists with an EU surplus of $291 billion (up 120% from 2020) and Gulf exports down 52% year-on-year in March (a market that was only 3.8% of 2025 exports), while weak domestic demand that keeps goods cheap at home also underpinned net exports’ 1.6 percentage-point contribution to last year’s 5% growth.
Source: Why China’s exports will keep on rising
Subtitle: Our new analysis shows how the country shrugged off the effects of Donald Trump’s tariffs
Dateline: 4月 23, 2026 03:40 上午