过去一年左右，对外界的担忧已从担心西方技术过度流入中国，转向担心中国过度阻止其先进技术向外国外流。企业和外交人士现在看到中国正试图围绕电动车和人工智能机器人等领先领域筑起“护城河”，而欧盟及部分发展中经济体则通过把市场准入与本地化制造挂钩，推动所谓“反向技术转移”。

这种机制并不统一：欧盟在采购规则和“欧洲制造”要求上推进较快，巴西到越南等国也在吸引中国新能源汽车投资，但官员们承认这套框架仍是试验阶段。与此同时，中国在过去五年里建立了类似美国的出口管制体系，并已要求向外输出电动车电池等敏感技术先取得许可，因此对 Manus 一案也反应激烈，甚至在其转到新加坡并准备出售给外国买家后限制了联合创始人的出境。

历史经验表明，知识仍会通过持续性的非国家渠道流动：中国吸收外国技术用了三十年，组合了投资激励、合资要求、课程与高校合作，以及据称的知识产权盗用。如今“技术转移”更像一整套流程（含供应链和人才培养）而非单一技术图纸，虽然美国在芯片上仍有严格卡位，苹果在印度生产的 iPhone 约占四分之一，以及车企在中国供应商体系中普遍研发，说明技术双向流动在政治阻力下仍可能继续增强。

For the past year, concern has shifted from fear of too much Western technology entering China to fear of China keeping too much of its own advanced know-how from moving out. Firms and diplomats now see China trying to build a moat around sectors like electric vehicles and AI robotics, while the EU and some developing states are pushing “reverse transfer” through local-manufacturing requirements tied to market access.

The mechanism is still uneven: Europe has moved fast with procurement and local-content rules, and countries from Brazil to Vietnam are courting Chinese EV firms, but officials admit the model remains experimental. At the same time, China has spent five years building U.S.-style export controls, including licensing for sensitive EV-battery technologies, so regulators resist liberalization and in the Manus case even restricted co-founders from leaving after the company shifted base for an external sale.

History suggests knowledge still leaks through persistent non-state channels: China took three decades to build a mix of investor incentives, joint-venture mandates, curriculum and university links, and in some accounts IP theft. Today, “transfer” increasingly means ecosystems—supplier links and workforce training, not just blueprints—and while China still seeks Western chips and resists full outward leakage, the fact that Apple makes about one-quarter of iPhones in India and that automakers widely develop in China show that cross-border technology flows are likely to continue in both directions.

Source: The world wants Chinese tech. China is determined to keep it

Subtitle: China’s rivals are learning how to get what China won’t share

Dateline: 4月 23, 2026 03:39 上午