分析人士认为，美国总统特朗普迅速移除委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗，可能改变中国在拉美的战略盘算，尤其在伊朗风险上升之际。若德黑兰政权更迭或动荡扰乱供应，中国作为伊朗最大客户将被迫寻找替代油源；委内瑞拉原本是「资源丰富且对华友好」的自然选项，但特朗普称该国如今将由美国「运行」。

部分鹰派观点称，失去伊朗与委内瑞拉的折价原油，对中国经济可能是「灾难性」的：在美方对出口「隔离」前，马杜罗政权以受制裁折扣价提供了接近中国原油进口的10%；若伊朗再出现供应中断，合并冲击可能接近中国原油进口的三分之一。援引AidData（威廉与玛丽学院的研究机构），委内瑞拉在2000—2023年间是中国海外放贷第四大受援国，中国估计在当地融资约600亿美元。军事层面上，委内瑞拉防空中的中国制雷达未能发现或拦截美军，被用来佐证中俄伊武器体系弱点。

也有分析人士警告，这类政权更迭行动可能导致美国「战略漂移」与过度延伸，背离反对无尽干预的「美国优先」框架；特朗普称美国将「运行」委内瑞拉并充当不明确权力过渡的裁判，被视为重大偏离。相对地，另一些人把此举置于「门罗主义补充」的半球防御脉络（1823年门罗宣言）之中，认为可阻止中国等大国在西半球「插手」，并与「自由开放的印太」互补。布鲁金斯的一位学者则表示，委内瑞拉事件不太可能改变北京对台湾的盘算，但北京或会私下要求华盛顿淡化在南海等议题上对国际法的援引。

Analysts argue President Donald Trump’s rapid operation to remove Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro could reshape China’s regional calculus, especially as risks around Iran rise. If regime change or turmoil in Tehran disrupts supply, China—Iran’s largest customer—would need alternative crude; Venezuela had been a natural, China-friendly option, but Trump said the country will now be “run” by the U.S.

Hawkish voices frame a dual loss of discounted Iranian and Venezuelan oil as economically severe for China: before the U.S. “quarantine” on exports, Maduro’s government provided close to 10% of China’s oil imports at a sanctions-discounted price; if Iran also suffers disruptions, the combined hit could approach one-third of China’s oil imports. Citing AidData, Venezuela ranked fourth among recipients of Chinese overseas lending from 2000–2023, with an estimated $60 billion financed. Militarily, Venezuela’s Chinese-made radar failed to detect or stop U.S. forces, cited as exposing weaknesses in Chinese/Russian/Iranian systems.

Others warn the move risks U.S. strategic drift and overreach, conflicting with an America First rejection of open-ended interventions; Trump’s claim the U.S. will “run” Venezuela and arbitrate an undefined transition is cited as a sharp departure. In contrast, supporters place it in a hemispheric-defense “Trump corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine (1823), arguing great-power meddling in the Americas is unacceptable and complements a “free and open” Indo-Pacific. A Brookings scholar says Venezuela is unlikely to shift Beijing’s Taiwan calculus, though China may privately ask Washington to mute invocations of international law in disputes like the South China Sea.