这场危机的根源在于2026年强烈的厄尔尼诺现象。秘鲁是全球凤尾鱼的「沙乌地阿拉伯」，其鱼粉产量约占全球两成，加上厄瓜多尔和智利则接近三分之一。厄尔尼诺使太平洋赤道附近水温升高、营养物质减少，导致鱼群数量锐减。秘鲁政府已对凤尾鱼捕捞实施无限期禁令，使全球鱼粉产量估计下降三至四成，批发价格飙升至每公吨近三千美元的历史纪录。
与1990年代末上一次强烈厄尔尼诺相比，当今水产养殖业的规模已大幅扩张——全球超过一半的鱼类和海鲜来自养殖场，人均鱼类消费量也从1990年代的14.3公斤升至2024年的21.3公斤。厄尔尼诺通常在年底达到高峰，意味著危机在好转之前可能进一步恶化。业界预计鲑鱼价格到2027年可能上涨二至二成五，达到历史新高。这场凤尾鱼危机凸显了全球食品供应链的脆弱性，秘鲁的天气事件足以推高欧洲及全球超市的鱼价。
Global anchovy production has plummeted by up to 40% year-over-year, with prices surging 80% to an all-time high. The humble anchovy underpins a critical supply chain for the $500-billion-a-year aquaculture industry, as it is the primary ingredient in fishmeal. The resulting shortage is expected to drive up supermarket prices for salmon, seabass, shrimp, and other farmed seafood, potentially drawing the attention of Wall Street and central banks.
The crisis stems from a powerful 2026 El Niño event—one of the strongest in modern history—which has warmed Pacific waters near the equator, depleting nutrients and devastating fish stocks. Peru, which accounts for roughly 20% of global fishmeal supply, imposed an indefinite ban on anchovy fishing, and combined with reduced catches in Ecuador and Chile, global fishmeal production has fallen an estimated 30% to 40%. Wholesale fishmeal prices have nearly doubled over the past year, reaching a record $2,990 per metric ton in late June.
The situation is far more consequential than during the last major El Niño in 1997–1998, because aquaculture now supplies over half the world's fish and seafood, up from less than a quarter in the late 1990s, while per-capita fish consumption has risen from 14.3 kg to 21.3 kg per year. With El Niño typically peaking around year-end, conditions are expected to worsen before improving. Industry executives anticipate salmon prices could climb 20% to 25%, potentially reaching all-time highs by 2027. The anchovy crisis underscores how a regional weather event in Peru can ripple through global food supply chains, with impacts on food prices potentially exceeding those of geopolitical conflicts.