在硬资产交易方面，伊朗战争推动油价上涨，布伦特原油年内涨幅达19.8%，而比特币则下跌33.3%，买入原油同时做空比特币的策略获利约79%。美国汽油期货更飙涨76.7%，搭配做空白银的策略获利高达116%。这些交易与2008年上半年做多石油做空银行股的经典案例有著表面上的相似性——当年该策略在七月初因自身逻辑矛盾而崩溃，油价随后暴跌，全年银行股反而跑赢石油。
文章警告当前趋势可能难以持续。BCA Research的分析师指出，美国科技相关资本支出占GDP比重已超过2000年科技泡沫时的峰值，而非科技领域的资本支出却在下降，显示AI投资正在挤占其他领域的资源。韩国股市的飙涨主要依赖散户投资者，外资反而持续撤离。新兴市场的整体上涨完全归功于台湾和韩国的科技硬体公司，剔除这些公司后新兴市场近期实际上已走弱。地理分散已无法有效分散风险，关键在于管理石油和AI热潮带来的风险与机遇。
The first half of 2026 delivered spectacular market returns, analyzed through the lens of author John Authers' fictional "Hindsight Capital" hedge fund. AI-driven investment and energy shocks created extraordinary profit opportunities: a long semiconductors/short software trade returned 150%, South Korea's Kospi nearly doubled on the strength of Samsung and SK Hynix, and shorting China's MSCI index against the rest of emerging markets yielded over 60%. Meanwhile, China's heavy AI spending flowed abroad to foreign chipmakers without yet boosting domestic demand, leaving its stock market struggling.
Hard asset trades also generated massive returns as the Iran war lifted oil prices while undermining the "debasement trade" of buying inflation hedges like Bitcoin and precious metals. Brent crude rose 19.8% while Bitcoin fell 33.3%, and US gasoline futures surged 76.7% against an 18.3% decline in silver. These trades bear a striking resemblance to the 2008 first-half pattern of going long oil and short banks — a strategy that spectacularly reversed in July 2008 when investors realized a collapsing banking system could not support record oil demand, offering a cautionary historical parallel.
The article raises serious concerns about sustainability. US tech-related capital expenditure now exceeds its 2000 dot-com peak as a share of GDP, while non-tech capex is declining — a pattern reminiscent of housing bubbles in the US, Japan, and Spain before they burst. Korea's rally is alarmingly dependent on retail investors amid a foreign capital exodus. The entire emerging market outperformance is attributable solely to Taiwanese and Korean tech hardware firms; strip them out and EM is actually lagging. As Pictet's research team noted, true diversification now depends not on geographic spread but on managing exposure to the two dominant return drivers: oil and the AI boom.