美国人并不以爱吃蔬菜著称，但番茄却无处不在：它是仅次于土豆的最常吃蔬菜。如今番茄价格比一年前高出近25%，而美国番茄进口中约90%来自墨西哥；2025年年中，特朗普退出“番茄暂停协议”并对其征收17%的关税，这进一步推高了价格。

能源冲击正沿着食品供应链传导，首先影响农场：化肥通常以天然气为原料，约占农民投入成本的40%，再加上柴油拖拉机成本，但本季许多成本在战争爆发前已发生，因此农产品价格的全面影响可能要到下季才显现。加工环节由于更依赖电力和天然气、且已在疫情后涨价并流失顾客，短期内提价空间有限。

目前最强的通胀压力来自包装和运输：塑料包装依赖石油，而石化原料价格已上涨约两成，导致洗发水等家居和美妆品价格同比上升约10%；运输则消耗供应链总能源的六分之一，且可能占其一半的石油需求，而美国80%—90%的农产品依赖卡车运输。4月消费者价格指数显示，水果和蔬菜同比上涨6%，尽管乳制品和鸡蛋未再上涨，但疫情前食品价格已比当时高出三分之一。

Americans are not famous for their love of vegetables, but the tomato is everywhere: it is the most eaten vegetable after potatoes. Tomato prices are now almost 25% higher than a year ago, and about 90% of America’s tomato imports come from Mexico; in mid-2025, Mr Trump withdrew from the “Tomato Suspension Agreement” and imposed a 17% levy, which pushed prices higher.

The energy shock is moving through the food supply chain, starting at farms: fertilisers usually use natural gas as a feedstock and account for as much as 40% of input costs, plus diesel for tractors, but much of this season’s cost had already been incurred before the war began, so the full effect on crop prices may not show up until next season. Processing has less room to raise prices in the short run because it relies more on electricity and natural gas, and because it already raised prices after the pandemic and lost customers.

For now, the strongest inflation pressure comes from packaging and transport: plastic packaging depends on oil, and petrochemical feedstocks are now around two-fifths higher in price, helping push year-on-year prices for items like grocery-store shampoo up by about 10%; transport uses one-sixth of the food supply chain’s total energy and perhaps half its oil requirement, while 80-90% of America’s produce is hauled by lorries. April CPI data showed fruit and vegetable prices up 6% year on year, even though dairy and eggs rose no further, and food prices overall are already a third higher than before the pandemic.

Source: America faces another grocery-price shock

Subtitle: Higher energy costs will be felt unevenly across the food-supply chai

Dateline: 5月 14, 2026 11:25 上午 | Washington, DC