自1月中旬起，随著地缘政治紧张升高与全球避险情绪，赎回、被迫清算与卖压回馈回圈推动跌势加速；Chris Newhouse（Ergonia）将跌幅放大归因于缺乏具信念的买盘，并指出ETF资金流出与清算瀑布效应。此情境呼应2022年在Federal Reserve紧缩下、疫情后反转所见的下跌，且已冲击中介机构：Coinbase Global Inc.股价年初至今下跌逾30%，Gemini Space Station Inc.表示计划裁员最多25%，并收缩在英国、欧盟与澳洲的营运。投机注意力也转向合法化体育博彩、预测市场、股票零日到期选择权，以及去中心化交易所上的较高收益加密交易。
ETF资金流由支撑转为压力：在2025年大部分时间，美国现货Bitcoin ETF累计流入达数百亿美元后，过去一个月约流出$2 billion，过去三个月流出逾$5 billion。规模较小、流动性较差的代币跌得更深，MarketVector Digital Assets 100 Small-Cap Index在过去一年下跌约70%。选择权部位转向防御，对$70,000附近下行保护的需求上升，而Deribit显示6月下旬到期合约的未平仓量集中在$60,000与$20,000；Ryan Rasmussen（Bitwise）称此为回撤的「despair phase」，Ilan Solot（Marex）短期仍偏空，但认为最坏情况可能已过，且类似回撤历来常为多年期投资者带来买入机会。
On Feb 6, 2026 5:56 AM GMT+8, Bitcoin fell below $63,000 amid leveraged unwinds and broader market turbulence, erasing all gains since President Donald Trump’s election-driven crypto surge. It dropped as much as 14% on Thursday to $62,267, the lowest level since October 2024; it also traded below $70,000 for the first time since November 2024. The selloff has cut roughly half of Bitcoin’s value from its record reached about four months earlier and spilled into other tokens, related ETFs, and coin-heavy holders such as Strategy Inc.
The decline accelerated from mid-January as rising geopolitical tensions and global risk-off moves triggered redemptions, forced liquidations, and a feedback loop of selling; Chris Newhouse (Ergonia) attributed the magnitude to missing conviction buyers alongside ETF outflows and liquidation cascades. The episode echoes 2022’s post-pandemic reversal during Federal Reserve tightening and is already hitting intermediaries: Coinbase Global Inc. shares are down more than 30% year to date, and Gemini Space Station Inc. said it plans to cut up to 25% of its workforce and wind down operations in the UK, European Union, and Australia. Competition for speculative attention has also shifted toward legalized sports gambling, prediction markets, zero-day equity options, and higher-yield crypto trades on decentralized exchanges.
ETF flows flipped from support to pressure: after tens of billions of dollars flowed into US spot-Bitcoin ETFs through much of 2025, about $2 billion exited over the past month and more than $5 billion over the past three months. Smaller, less liquid tokens fell harder, with the MarketVector Digital Assets 100 Small-Cap Index down about 70% over the past year. Options positioning turned defensive, with demand for downside protection around $70,000 and late-June open interest concentrated near $60,000 and $20,000 on Deribit; Ryan Rasmussen (Bitwise) labeled the move a “despair phase,” while Ilan Solot (Marex) stayed bearish near term but argued the worst may be past and that similar drawdowns have historically created buying opportunities for multi-year investors.