波兰于11月26日决定购买3艘萨博建造的A26潜艇——全长66米——估计耗资28亿美元，以获得对波罗的海“水上与水下”的监视能力。该海域拥挤的海床上既有管道与电缆，也有10座LNG终端（另有2座在建）；在爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛将电力系统从俄罗斯电网解列后，它们与欧洲电网相连的4条线路中有3条位于水下。
尽管北约囊括了波罗的海9个沿岸国中除俄罗斯外的所有国家，俄罗斯仍具备不对称破坏能力：自2023年以来至少发生过11起疑似破坏基础设施事件，而重大破裂（包括波罗的海连接管道以及芬兰—爱沙尼亚电力电缆）修复都耗时数月。混合行动也延伸到海面之上——9月在丹麦机场上空发现疑似由与俄相关船只发射的无人机，10月上旬丹麦称俄军舰曾将武器指向丹麦力量并模拟碰撞航行。
波兰尤为暴露，其近一半能源进口依赖波罗的海的管道和港口；到2040年，它可能在海上风电与LNG方面投资远超1000亿美元，而首座核电站（预计2036年投运）将距海岸不足2公里。防护能力仍在滞后——瑞典首艘A26交付推迟至2031年、波兰的3艘要到2030年代到位，北约“波罗的海哨兵”（2025年初启动）无法登船检查可疑油轮，而RAND估算海底电信电缆的日修复成本为2400万欧元（2800万美元）、油管为3600万欧元、气管为7500万欧元，且通常持续数月。
Poland decided on November 26 to buy three Saab-built A26 submarines—66 metres long—for an estimated $2.8bn, seeking “eyes on and under” the Baltic Sea’s crowded seabed. That seabed now carries pipelines and cables alongside 10 LNG terminals (with two more being built) and, after Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania unplugged from Russia’s grid, three of the four links to the European grid run underwater.
Although NATO includes all but Russia of the Baltic’s nine littoral states, Russia has asymmetric leverage: since 2023 there have been at least 11 suspected sabotage incidents, and major ruptures (including Balticconnector and a Finland–Estonia power cable) took months to repair. Hybrid activity has also moved above water—ship-launched drones were spotted over Danish airports in September, and in early October Denmark said Russian warships pointed weapons at Danish forces and simulated a collision.
Poland is especially exposed, relying on Baltic pipelines and ports for nearly half of its energy imports; by 2040 it may invest well over $100bn in offshore wind and LNG, while its first nuclear plant (expected in 2036) will sit under 2km from shore. Protection is lagging—Sweden’s first A26 delivery slipped to 2031 and Poland’s three boats arrive in the 2030s, NATO’s Baltic Sentry (launched in early 2025) cannot board suspect tankers, and RAND estimates daily repair costs of €24m ($28m) for a telecoms cable, €36m for an oil pipeline and €75m for a gas pipeline, typically for months.
Source: The Baltic is becoming a battleground between NATO and Russia
Subtitle: Poland, Sweden and others are buying subs to protect pipelines
Dateline: 12月 31, 2025 02:58 上午